The Expensive Bullpen Era is Dead. Long Live the Expensive Bullpen Era.

The Astros sunk a ton of resources in veteran contracts and trade costs since 2016. The need to spend bigger on regulars in the near future means that era is over.

When the Astros signed Josh Hader, I wrote that:

The front office has tended to place a great deal of their resources into the bullpen, whether on the free agent market (c.f. Neris, Joe Smith), re-signing its own players (Ryan Pressly twice, Rafael Montero), or on the trade market (Ken Giles, Roberto Osuna, Kendall Graveman twice, and Phil Maton).

Between the cost of free agent contract, re-signing players, and prospects, the Astros have spent a lot on their bullpen. Since 2016—when the Astros sent out 4 pitchers for Ken Giles—the team has had an Expensive Bullpen.

The trade of Ryan Pressly signals that Era is likely over for the Astros.

In this article, I'll explain why the Expensive Bullpen Era could happen, why that era has ended, what the next era will be like for the bullpen, and why the Astros might not be worse off for it.

Why the Expensive Bullpen Era Happened

At the trade deadline in 2018, the Astros had one major need: an extra arm in the bullpen. In 2021, they again needed help in the bullpen.

That the focus those years was on the bullpen tells you something else, the Astros did not have big needs elsewhere. They didn’t need a starting pitcher or a new left fielder. If all you need is a bullpen arm, then the rest of your team must be pretty strong.

For the most part, that has been the story for the Astros since entering their golden age in the 2017. Every season since then, they've been one of the handful of best teams in the majors, which means they have relatively few holes.

In many ways, an expensive bullpen is a luxury item. It's available to the most expensive teams, or to teams that look like expensive teams like the Astros. The ability of the farm system to produce not only one World Series winning core, but a second one produced a team with few holes. Oddly, the place where the farm system most struggled to produce quality players for the Astros—until the emergence of Bryan Abreu—was in the bullpen.

Why the Expensive Bullpen Era Happened

The trade of Pressly was done for financial reasons. Jim Crane wanted to reduce payroll to increase his profits and the best way to do that while minimizing the impact on the field was to trade an expensive bullpen arm. An expensive bullpen is indeed a luxury.

That the Astros can no longer put lots of resources into their bullpen is therefore a sign that they want—nay need—to spend more of their budget elsewhere. The team currently has a gaping hole in the outfield, and the best scenario for us Astros fans is that the money saved on Pressly gets redirected there, rather into Crane’s ivory back scratcher collection.

When a team has to spend its resources on every day players, it cannot afford to have an expensive bullpen. And the Astros now need to spend more of its resources on every day players. The biggest reason for this is that the farm system seems to be light on future every day players. he Astros don’t seem to have a prospect right now good enough to start in right field for the team in 2025 and thus external (and thus more expensive) options are needed.

The expensive bullpen era was in many ways a function of the Astros excellent player development system. The front office could focus on luxury goods in expensive relievers instead of every day right fielders or rotation options.

The Next Era of the Astros Bullpen

With Pressly on the Cubs and Rafael Montero in the minors, the Astros will need to move into a new era for building their bullpen.

While I have declared the era of the Expensive Bullpen over, the bullpen will still be expensive. The Astros will pay Josh Hader $19 million in 2025 (and through 2028) to be their closer. That’s the second highest salary of any major league reliever next season.

After that though, the Astros bullpen should feature a bunch of relievers either developed from within the farm system or relievers picked up off of the scrap heap and turned into serviceable relievers.

I highlighted last Spring Training that the Astros were moving in this direction, identifying recent pickups Bennett Sousa, Oliver Ortega, Dylan Coleman, Wander Suero, Tayler Scott, and John Kuhnel as potential pieces in the bullpen in 2024. Each was flawed, but “one of the six might break through.”

That proved to be exactly right. Five of the six washed out in 2024, but Scott proved to be a keeper, posting a 2.23 ERA in 68 bullpen innings. Two others emerged off of the scrap heap. Bryan King was picked up in the minor league Rule 5 draft in 2023, but pitched his way to the majors, and was effective, striking out 32 and walking just 10 batters in 26 major league innings. Ort was picked up off of waivers, and Astros coached helped him avoid walks for the first time in his career. Low walk rates at Sugar Land earned him a trip to the major league bullpen where he walked only 4 while striking out 26 in 24.2 innings.

Those three are expected to make the Opening Day bullpen. They might be joined by pitchers like Shawn Dubin and Forrest Whitley, relief prospects developed by the Astros.

The team will also likely to continue to sort through potential bullpen options from minor league invites to Spring Training, having invited former major leaguers Steven Okert, Miguel Castro, and Glenn Otto to West Palm Beach. They will likely continue to troll the waiver wire for pitchers they think they can improve like Ort.

Can this work? There is no doubt that any Astros fan would feel more confident seeing Ryan Pressly stride to the mound with a tight lead than somebody who was DFAed in the last calendar year. Luxuries are of course quite valuable.

Yet, if you look at the 2024 World Series, neither team had a bullpen of high priced free agents. The Dodgers bullpen primarily was composed of those picked up in savvy trades (Alex Vesia) with more modest priced free agents (Daniel Hudson, Blake Treinen). The Yankees built their bullpen even more off of the scrap heap, developing a pennant winning ‘pen out of mostly castoffs from other teams (Luke Weaver, Tim Hill, Jake Cousins) and one shrewd trade pickup (Clay Holmes).

The Astros will need to do the same in 2025 and beyond. They no longer have the farm system or the payroll space to pay for the luxury good that is an Expensive Bullpen.