The Astros Keep Defying the Odds. And That Makes The Winning More Enjoyable.
I don't think the Astros have any special sauce that allows them to keep winning playoff series. But I do think that having the odds stacked against you makes it sweeter when you beat them.
I constantly make the point that the playoffs are a crapshoot. And the reason for this is simple: the results of any baseball game tend to look like a coinflip. That is, either team can win and the margins between the two teams are very small, even between the best and worst MLB teams. More than any other major sport, the bounces of the ball can go your way or go against you.
There was much discussion again this year if the new playoff format—in which two teams receive a bye and get five days off between the end of the season and their first playoff game—actually harms those teams. To me, that discussion is completely misplaced. Since the playoffs are a crapshoot, we would expect to see lots of upsets. In short series baseball, advantages are small, and anything can happen. It seems obvious to me that we should act that way, rather than treating upsets as major shocks. We probably should stop using the term upset.
There is one major exception to the “playoffs are a crapshoot” theorem—our Houston Astros. With their win Wednesday night at Target Field, the Astros won their seventh straight berth in the American League Championship Series. It is the second longest streak in baseball history after the Braves from 1991 to 1999. And of course, the Braves did not have to go through the crapshoot of the Division Series in the first three of those seasons.
Wild Levels of Playoff Success
No team has ever had the run of Division Series success of our Astros. Since 2017, the Astros have won 21 American League Division Series games and lost only six. That’s a .778 winning percentage, which is a 126 win pace.
In all playoff games since 2017, the Astros have 56 wins and 34 losses. That’s a .622 winning percentage, which is on pace for 101 wins. What’s wild about that winning percentage? It’s greater than the Astros winning percentage in regular season games in that time period, which is .614. That’s a high bar to get over, and yet, they have.
And just to show how remarkable the Astros postseason record is, contrast it to some other playoff regulars and World Series champions. The Dodgers have a regular season winning percentage of .641, and a postseason winning percentage of .547 since 2017. The Braves have won 59.2% of their games since they emerged from their rebuild in 2018 and 54.5% of their playoff games.
These are good teams in the regular season, but due to the higher caliber of competition they face in the playoffs, they take a step back. But their record is basically where we would expect it to be for a playoff team that is usually better than their opponents. And that’s right above .500.
That the Astros don’t look like this is remarkable.
Why Do The Astros Win So Much in October?
And that leads to the obvious question of why? Why are the Astros able to avoid the vagaries of the coin flip nature of short series baseball that befalls even the best teams in baseball.
Chandler Rome of The Athletic explored that question in talking to players during the Astros clubhouse celebration. Ryan Pressly posited that “It’s just the mentality they have…The camaraderie that we have in there, picking each other up day in and day out is something that we strive for.”
Justin Verlander expanded on that theme saying “There’s been a culture established here that hasn’t faded away. It’s still very present. They don’t allow slacking off, but they do it in a respectful manner. They expect the best of everyone because they’re giving their best every single day. What a great way to lead by example.”
There is clearly something to the mentality that baseball players develop to keep working and grinding. To “pick each other up” and to prevent “slacking off” by "lead[ing] by example.”
Dana Brown also talked to Rome and said “There’s nothing better than experience, and we have experienced guys in the postseason. These guys have been here before, have the heartbeat for this.”
Again, there’s something to this. Experience can be helpful in the playoffs, as guys who have been there before are less surprised by the increase in intensity that comes with playoff baseball and playoff fanbases.
But does it truly? Jeremy Pena didn’t need playoff experience to become the MVP of the ALCS and the World Series last season. Alex Bregman was in his first playoffs when he won Game 5 of the 2017 World Series.
And for both of these propositions, I wonder: Don’t the Dodgers have all of this? Most every one of their players is a playoff veteran and their first seven batters in their lineup in Game 3 against the Diamondbacks have won World Series. Don’t players like Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman know how to “pick guys up” and “lead by example?”
Similarly, the Braves are filled with guys who beat the Astros in the 2021 World Series. Shouldn’t guys like Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies have “the heartbeat for this?”
It’s not that these traits aren’t important; it’s that it is hard to believe that they are exclusive to the Astros. Maybe the Astros are a little better at these traits than other veteran playoff squads, but seven straight ALCS berths better?
Winning the Crapshoot
Of course, the Astros defying the odds is not new. After the win over Minnesota, St. Louis Post-Dispatch reporter Derek Goold shared an article he had written last November titled “If playoffs are so unpredictable, as Cardinals say, how do Astros always beat the odds?”
In the article, Goold discusses a number of factors that have worked out in the Astros favor over time—“their offense doesn’t go dim” in the playoffs; and “pitching depth,” especially “deep starting pitching.”
But then Goold reaches his conclusion, which is “…talent. Accumulate talent.”
And that is a big part of the story about the Astros. As noted above, they’ve played at a 99 win clip in the regular season since 2017. They’ve done that by developing a wave of top-line prospects into All-Stars, supplementing them with other All Star level players acquired primarily through trades, and then developing a second All-Star level core of young players. It’s a remarkable level of player development. They are a very talented team.
But Goold doesn’t stop there. His next sentence says “And when fortune winks have the talent and health to take advantage.”
The health part of it is part of the Astros advantage. They were injured early but healthy at the end of the season, getting Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Michael Brantley back from injuries to form their best lineup. Unlike the Dodgers and Braves, who had major injuries to starting pitchers1 The Astros have avoided crippling injuries late in the season that alter a team’s whole plan. And in many ways their worst postseason in this run was in 2018 when nagging injuries to players like Jose Altuve kept them team from functioning at its peak that October.2
And some of it is getting fortune to wink at you. Goold talked about the Astros playoff success with then General Manager James Click. And Click said it was the combination of luck and skill. “While there is a level of unpredictability in the playoffs and I think we all understand that this is a game of inches — talent still plays in the playoffs. Nobody is suggesting that it’s all luck. It’s probably a little bit more of a question of luck and skill than the regular season, but three is still plenty of room for skill to play up.”
It’s a conclusion I’m much more comfortable with than the ones proposed above. The Astros win in large part because they are very talented. They win a ton of games in the regular season because they have a lot of talent. And talent still plays in the playoffs, even if the advantages are smaller.
And that’s where the good fortune comes in. Sometimes the coin turns up heads 7 times in a row. Sometimes you hit on 16 and get a 5. Sometimes you keep rolling 7s at the craps table. Sometimes the last round backup running back you take in a fantasy football draft is Arian Foster.
When you beat the odds, it feels even better than when you win because you play it straight. You feel like you’re getting away with something. And at this point, it feels like the Astros are getting away with something. And that they’re beating the odds makes it even sweeter.
And in the Dodgers case, one of their top starters being off the roster due his behavior. Julio Urias is on administrative leave based on another domestic violence arrest.
Of course, the Red Sox did pretty well on the talent part of this equation in 2018…and then didn’t after that.