The Astros Desperately Need to Add Pitching. Other Needs Like First Base Can Take a Back Seat.
Injuries have ravaged the pitching staff and created a desperate need to acquire one or two starting pitchers. Yet, so many rumors have focused on first base, which is not as critical a need.
You’ve heard the rumors that the “Astros have identified Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as one of their top targets for a trade. You’ve seen that their “dream target is thought to be” Christian Walker, or that Dana Brown has “talked to the Mets about Pete Alonso.” You’ve even seen the recent report by Chandler Rome of The Athletic that “the team is interested in…Isaac Paredes, a pull-happy power threat who would profile perfectly with the Crawford Boxes at Minute Maid Park.”
Don’t pay them any attention.
Well, that’s too strong. These are credible reports from well-sourced reporters—especially Rome, the team’s best beat reporter. So you should regard them as truthful and relevant. And the team would be helped by an upgrade at first base, their weakest position on offense.
But as a fan, I suggest that you focus on the Astros search for starting pitching, because that’s where the front office must add at the trade deadline. The Astros have a massive need for starting pitching. They can muddle through everything else, but they have to get a starting pitcher.
Why do the Astros have such a huge need for starting pitching? The answer is Justin Verlander, Cristian Javier, Lance McCullers, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, and JP France.
If that was a team’s starting rotation entering a season, you would be optimistic about that team’s chances that season. But for the Astros, that’s the list of their starting pitchers on the injured list right now.. Verlander, McCullers, and Garcia have all been slowly recovering from their injuries, and it is unclear how many starts the Astros can get from those three this season. That number is clearer for Javier, Urquidy, and France. It’s 0, as all three have had season ending surgery on their pitching arm this season.
Currently, the Astros have 5 healthy starting pitchers on the team’s 40 man roster. If one goes down, they’ll presumably again go to a bullpen game once every 5 days like they did earlier this month.
But the rotation issue is even greater than just lacking an extra starter. The Astros rotation is relative inexperienced—Spencer Arrighetti and Jake Bloss debuted in 2024 and Ronel Blanco is in his third major league season. None has ever pitched as much in the past as they have so far this season and it unclear how many innings each is available to throw this season. In the ideal, each would have a reduced workload for the rest of the season.
And that’s before we get to their quality as pitchers. If the playoffs started today, the Astros would presumably throw Framber Valdez in Game 1, Hunter Brown in Game 2, and Ronel Blanco in Game 3. In Game 4, I assume they’d go with Arrighetti, who has shown promise in his rookie season (e.g. his above average 25.4% strikeout rate), but lots of inconsistency (an ERA of 5.65). You hope for better options.
And the issue of whether these pitchers can be effective in a playoff game is exacerbated by the fact that the playoffs are not today. They are in October, after another 60 games and more innings on the inexperienced arms of Brown, Blanco, Arrighetti and Bloss.
The Astros need a starting pitcher—or two—for a number of reasons
to get Bloss back to the minors where he can hone his craft so he can be an asset in the future.
to get more starting pitching to take some of the burden off of the arms of Brown and Blanco.
to protect against yet another injury to a starting pitcher, and having to go to bullpen games or another minor leaguer
to eat innings the rest of the season and let the bats cook, as they have been doing for the most part.
to get another starter with enough quality to make an effective start in the postseason,
and to move Arrighetti to the bullpen, where he can be a multi inning reliever—his best role and something desperately needed on this team.
In short, there are a lot of reasons—good and important reasons—to prioritize starting pitching at the trade deadline.
Obviously, getting Verlander and Garcia back and into the rotation would help address many of the issues I have raised here. One hopes they can do this, but their slow recoveries from injury indicate that relying on those two is not a good plan. Trading for a starting pitcher is.
There are good reasons to target a first baseman—Jon Singleton is close to a replacement level player there, and addressing any weakness is a good thing. But it feels to me the focus on a first baseman fits with the theme of the last two years that the Astros go after the biggest name on the market.
And the starting pitchers on the trade block—and just today report came connecting the Astros to Jamieson Taillon of the Cubs and Erick Fedde of the White Sox—are much less famous and exciting than Alonso or Guerrero.
But that shouldn’t matter. It would nice to upgrade at first base. It is essential that the Astros get a new starting pitcher.
When has Jim Crane ever set a budget? Never. If he gets the opportunity to get Guerrero and a top shelf pitcher, he will. Guerrero is 25 yo and he'll hold down 1st for the next 10 years. He makes too much money off the post season not to pick up a 1st baseman and a starting pitcher. I think he'll also extend Bregman just like Altuve.