The Astros Defied the Playoff Odds and the Baseball Gods for Years, Until They Finally Didn't

That the Astros would keep winning early round series seemed inevitable even though it wasn't. Reflections on seven straight years of ALCS appearances and the end of that streak.

It has to end sometimes, doesn’t it.

I guess technically it doesn’t have to, but in reality, it has to.

This week, the Astros washed out of the playoffs in the Wild Card round, scoring but 3 runs over two games and blowing a tight lead in Game 2.

I excoriated the Astros hitters for their failure in that series, and Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader for their inability to hold a one run lead in my previous Substack.

Today, I take the longer perspective, reflecting instead and appreciate the improbable run the Astros went on get to 7 straight Championship Series.

Wild Levels of Playoff Success

For seven straight seasons, the Astros defied the baseball gods. They defied the principle that the playoffs are a crapshoot. They defied logic and reason, and the expectations of us long time fans that the playoffs in Houston meant excitement, and drama, and the Astros losing in the first round.

Last season, after the Astros defeated the Twins, I wrote that “since 2017, the Astros have won 21 American League Division Series games and lost only six. That’s a .778 winning percentage, which is a 126 win pace.”

That’s not normal, at any point in a season, much less against a series of winning teams.

To drive that point home, I compared the Astros record to two other recent playoff stalwarts—the Dodgers and the Braves. Both of those franchises go to the playoffs “every” year, just like the Astros. Yet, they play more in the playoffs like a normal good team. The Dodgers have a playoff winning percentage since 2017 of .547. The Braves was .545.¹

I noted such a record was not only ridiculously good, but that it contrasted with recent playoff stalwarts such as the Dodgers and the Braves, who had winning percentages of .547 and .545 in playoff games, respectively, over the past 7 postseasons.

I concluded, “But their record is basically where we would expect it to be for a playoff team that is usually better than their opponents. And that’s right above .500.”

I then wrote “That the Astros don’t look like this is remarkable.”

That’s obviously less true today than it was when I wrote it. Since then, the Astros have gone 3-6 in playoff games, losing series to the Rangers and the Tigers.

Overall, that drops the Astros record in playoff games since 2017 to 59-40. Overall, that’s a .596 winning percentage, a 97 win pace. Again, the Astros opponents in these games are not a random selection of major league teams, but the top handful of teams in major league baseball.

The Astros are supposed to be the ones celebrating with joy in October, not hanging their heads in disappointment.

The Baseball Gods Finally Caught Up with the Astros.

One conclusion I draw is that the Astros were defying the odds for so long it was bound to catch up with them. Short series baseball is not a test of which is the better team, but which is the better team on a particular day or two. It is unlikely that the Astros bats would have stayed asleep over a longer set of games, even against an excellent run prevention team such as the Tigers. But on these two days, the bats could not deliver.

In many ways, the fact that the Astros kept defying the odds and making deep playoff runs makes the failure to do so this season more bitter. We Astros fans have grown to expect the team to win these early series. We expected them to beat the Tigers because don’t they always beat teams like the Tigers. Usually, the answer is yes.

Talent and Playoff Success

The other conclusion is the more sobering one. The Astros have less talent today than they did a few years ago, making the early round loss more likely.

In writing about the seven straight ALCS appearances last season, I quoted from a 2022 article from Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, whose reached the conclusion that they was to defy the odds in the playoffs was “…talent. Accumulate talent.”

This has been of course a big part of the Astros success in the postseason over the past 8 seasons. They have had the most talented teams in Astros history, and they replaced a homegrown core of playoff stars with another set of stars to extend the window for a second World Series title in 2022.

Luck still matters in the playoffs. But Goold writes “And when fortune winks have the talent and health to take advantage.”

The Astros may not have had the talent to take advantage this season. The offense is weaker at the bottom of the roster than some of the most talented Astros teams. The pitching staff needed major work in April, which ended up costing the Astros a bye to the Division Series round.

The Astros ended up winning 88 games this season, their lowest full season total since 2016. They had fewer advantages walking into this series than in previous seasons.

This conclusion is more sobering because it is a more difficult one to address than the luck component. The Astros may get fortune on their side next October. But if they don’t have the talent to get there, or if the fortune only props their odds up to even, it is less valuable than their good fortune was in 2022, when the team has so much pitching talent it led to a ring.

It’s a reminder that getting so many talented homegrown baseball players on the Astros from 2017 to 2024 was a significant accomplishment. And that the need to it again is paramount for the franchise, even if that task is so difficult.

1. I collected these numbers after the Braves and Dodgers lost in the Division Series last season. Obviously, the Braves record has gone down a little since they lost 2 games in their Wild Card Series against the Padres.