The AL in 2022: A Great Muddle?
Teams that didn't make the AL playoffs in 2021 made big moves this off-season. By contrast, teams that did make the playoffs mostly tinkered around their teams' edges.
Monday, the Detroit Tigers made another big move this off-season, acquiring Austin Meadows in a trade from the Tampa Bay Rays. And in many ways, that is similar to the big move the Minnesota Twins made, signing Carlos Correa away from our favorite team.
One is a trade and one is a free agent signing. One is for a defensive-wizard at shortstop and one for a slugging corner OF/DH type. One is an MVP candidate and one is a quality contributor. So how, you might ask, are these two moves similar.
In these moves, a team that was outside last year’s playoffs but wants to be in this year’s playoffs made a big move to achieve that goal. And a team that was in last year’s playoffs let a contributor go, not willing to pay his salary.
What we see in the Meadows and Correa moves was repeated throughout the American League in the 2022 offseason. It was the teams outside of last year’s playoffs looking in that made the biggest moves, trying to increase their win totals enough to claim the new playoff spot available in this year’s expanded playoffs. or to knock out one of the five participants in last year’s playoffs.
And this behavior contrasted strongly with that of teams that were in the playoffs last season. They seemed to mostly to tinker around the edges of their team rather than add star players.
Putting these two together, it seems every team in the American League set its off-season plan to try to win between 88 and 92 games this season. And if every team reaches their intended goal, the American League standings this year will be a great muddle in which it is hard to differentiate the quality of each team.
Let’s look through the off-season moves of each of the American League teams, starting with the teams that finished outside of the playoffs and then moving to the teams that made last season’s post-season tournament.
The Wannabee Playoff Teams
Blue Jays
Added: Kevin Gausman, Matt Chapman, Yusei Kikuchi, Raimel Tapia, Yimi Garcia
Lost: Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, Randal Grichuk
The Jays finished one game out of the playoffs last season, which means they would have made it under the new 12-team playoffs. The Jays were active this off-season, in large part because they had to be. They lost a top-flight starting pitcher, so they added another in free agency. They lost a star infielder to free agency, so they added one via trade. Their fifth starter signed elsewhere, so they signed another one.
The Blue Jays are favored to reach the playoffs this season, in large part because they probably should have made it last year. And because their deep team (especially on offense) has a high floor. But their off-season moves this year were designed less to go for it than to make up for the losses they suffered from their stars in 2021.
Mariners
Added: Robbie Ray, Jesse Winker, Eugenio Suarez, Adam Frazier, Ken Giles
Lost: Kyle Seager, Yusei Kikuchi
The Mariners finished 2 games out of the playoffs last year, and were not eliminated from playoff contention until the 162nd game of the season. They added the 2021 Cy Young Award winner, a 2021 All Star game starter, and two other regulars. So put that together with a 90 win team, and viola!, their playoff drought should end.
But not so fast. The Mariners may have won 90 games, but they allowed more runs than they scored in 2021, which meant their record should have been under .500. And while Mariners manager Scott Servais attributed the difference to the “fun differential,” actual baseball analysts usually find these trends are mostly due to randomness. The Ms needed to make moves assuming they were a 78 win, not a 90 win team.
They added a top-line starting pitcher in Ray. And while it’s likely his Cy Young season will be a career year, the Ms got a top of the market pitcher for the first time since Felix Hernandez turned into a pumpkin. Winker is a quality addition and Suarez will make up for Kyle Seager’s retirement. But as Patrick Dubuque wrote in analyzing the Winker/Suarez acquisition, it is a team that has quality young players at nearly every position, but without any real star power.” Is that good enough to win 90 games? Unlikely, but they could challenge it if things break right.
Tigers
Added: Javier Baez, Eduardo Rodriguez, Andrew Chafin, Tucker Barnhart, Austin Meadows
Lost: Matthew Boyd
The Tigers were one of the surprises of the 2021 season as their rebuild started bearing fruit ahead of schedule. The Tigers front office, which has been selling off since the 2017 trade of Justin Verlander to the Astros, finally started buying, signing a top free agent shortstop and a pitcher who will benefit from not having the Red Sox terrible infield defense behind him. They added a defense first catcher to help their young pitching staff.
The key to the Tigers playoff chances is that young pitching staff. Casey Mize, Matt Manning, and Tarik Skubal all earned a ton of prospect hype, yet each was underwhelming in 2021. The Tigers seem to have a long way to go to get to the playoffs, but development from those three would help a ton. In addition, the Tigers have Top 10 prospect Spencer Torkelson on the Opening Day roster as their first baseman, and Riley Greene, another Top 10 prospect, should be up one he recovers from a broken foot. The Tigers may be a year away, but they made moves this off season to be ready if this is their year.
Angels
Added: Noah Syndergaard, Aaron Loup, Ryan Tepera
Lost: Alex Cobb
The Angels have finished under .500 for each of the last 6 seasons, which sounds impossible. And yet, it’s true. It’s the longest streak in baseball, another weird but true fact.
So the Angels added this off-season, but only modestly. Their major addition was Noah Syndergaard, which is the type of high risk, high reward move that tends to confound. More confounding is how the Angels have handled their middle infield, with replacement level players Jack Mayfield, Tyler Wade, and Matt Duffy the compliments to David Fletcher.
This is a team that made one big move to get better, but should have made more.
Twins
Added: You Know Too Well, Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela, Gary Sanchez
Lost: Josh Donaldson, Mitch Garver, Michael Pineda
The Twins (big sigh) made the biggest splash of the off-season signing Correa. They were able to do this by clearing Josh Donaldson’s contract off of their books, but instead of sending that contract away for prospects, they got a starter at catcher and third base. In addition, they a badly needed starting pitcher and got one in a trade for Sonny Gray (they probably need more there).
The Twins have the furthest to go record-wise to get to the playoffs. They won only 73 games last season. But the Twins won the AL Central in 2019 and 2020 and have a number of promising young players. Getting Correa and Gray certainly help get them closer to the playoffs.
The Contenders vs. The Establishment
We see a lot of action by these five teams who were on the outside in 2021 looking in. There were different motivations for each team and different realities based on roster holes and the age of their core, but overall each of these five teams clearly tried to improve themselves this off-season.
I am not sure the same thing can be said about the five teams that made the AL playoffs last season. Each made moves, but it is not clear that any of the five truly improved their team enough to be true favorites in the American League
Rays
Added: Corey Kluber, Brooks Raley
Lost: Austin Meadows, Nelson Cruz, Collin McHugh, Joey Wendle
The Rays MO at this point is very clear. They are great at player development and have faith that players in their farm system or fringe players they identify from other teams (they acquired Isaac Parades from the Tigers; is he a better than I think?) will be good major leaguers and make up for the expensive players they choose to give up to maximize their owners profits.
When you spell it out like that, it sounds like a Ponzi scheme. But Ponzi schemes eventually blow up on people. The Rays scheme hasn’t yet, and I don’t think it will this year.
Astros
Added: “Justin Verlander,” Hector Neris
Lost: Carlos Correa, Kendall Graveman, Zack Greinke
I’ve said my piece in this space about the decision by the front office to move past Carlos Correa and make Jeremy Pena the starting shortstop. Pena could be very good, but Correa is already a star.
Justin Verlander is not technically an addition, but since he pitched 6 innings over the course of the last two years, I’m counting on him. And would seem to be an upgrade on Zack Greinke, who seemed to be on his last legs at the end of 2021. But overall, this team seems the weakest we’ve seen at Minute Maid Park since the ill-fated 2016 squad.
White Sox
Added: AJ Pollock, Kendall Graveman, Joe Kelly, Josh Harrison
Lost: Carlos Rodon, Craig Kimbrell, Cesar Hernandez, Ryan Tepera
The White Sox have made a series of interesting moves over the last 9 months. At they deadline, they traded their starting 2nd baseman and a promising young bullpen arm for Craig Kimbrell, and then traded Kimbrell last week for AJ Pollock, who will be their starting right fielder. They signed bullpen arms to cover the hole they were creating by shopping Kimbrell and the hole they had in right field. But their moves in combination created a hole at second base, which they will address with a platoon of Josh Harrison and Leury Garcia. They let Rodon go as a free agent to create a rotation spot for (finally) healthy Michael Kopech.
It’s a lot of action. But it’s unclear that they have made themselves better overall.
Red Sox
Added: Trevor Story, Jackie Bradley Jr., Rich Hill, Michael Wacha
Lost: Eduardo Rodriguez, Kyle Schwarber, Hunter Renfroe
The Red Sox signing of Trevor Story fits poorly with the thesis that it was only the non-playoff teams who were making big splashes. But if you evaluate the Red Sox’s entire off-season, they needed a big move to make up for their big losses. Rodriguez and Schwarber signed with striver non-playoff teams, and the Sox traded Renfroe for Bradley (netting two prospects in return). Their rotation seems a weak spot, especially with Chris Sale starting the season on the 60-day IL. The signed veterans like Wacha and Hill for the rotation, but those moves don’t seem to move the needle much.
Yankees
Added: Josh Donaldson, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ben Rortvedt
Lost: Gio Urshela, Gary Sanchez, Luke Voit, Corey Kluber
Donaldson is a big addition, and Kiner-Falefa will shore up the infield defense for the Yankees. They created depth that will allow them to move DJ LaMaheiu to slide between 3 different positions. They flexed their financial advantage and increased their payroll by nearly $50 million since last season.
And yet, it’s hard to think that they Yankees are better today than when they were eliminated in the Wild Card game. They upgraded at third base, but did so by creating a hole at catcher. Did they rob Peter to pay Paul? Why not just pay Paul, who in this case would be one of the star shortstops who were on the free agent market this offseason.
The American League in 2022
The result of the 2022 off-season is an American League that leaves the league in a greater muddle than we saw in 2021. Projections show that the playoff teams from 2021 are again likely to return in 2022, but that the collective choice by these teams to tinker rather than improve makes that grip more perilous.
One can certainly see scenarios where each of the non-playoff teams discussed in this article ourperform their expectations and take one of the playoff spots. Adding talented players this offseason was part of a plan be each of those teams to be more competitive in 2022 (and beyond). This aggressive behavior makes sense. We are not good enough to make the playoffs right now, so we need to be motivated to add a piece in the offseason.
The behavior of the 2022 playoff teams is harder to explain. Rather than make moves designed to increase their chances of taking the World Series title back to the American League, these teams were content to let the biggest stars go to the teams one tier below them. Will this set of decisions come back to haunt any of all of last year’s playoff contenders. That’s one story to track in this year’s American League.