Stuck in the Middle?

The Astros faced a choice between going for it in 2025 or resetting to improve in the future. In dealing Kyle Tucker for major league talent, they chose a middle path. It's the worst direction.

Yesterday, the Astros traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs for 3B/1B Isaac Parades, RHP Hayden Wesneski, and prospect 3B Cam Smith.

On Sunday, I examined the potential directions the Astros could go this offseason. One option I presented was to “make moves to maximize their chances of winning in 2025.” The other was to trade someone like Tucker as “an opportunity to gain some young players to help the team over the next several seasons in exchange for hobbling it some in 2025.”

In trading for the Cubs package—especially in getting Parades, who has three years remaining before free agency—the Astros chose neither option. They decided to to be in the middle of those two options. And I think that is the worst of the choices that General Manager Dana Brown could have made.

Just One Prospect

In acquiring Cam Smith, the Astros got something the organization desperately needed: A top prospect. Smith was the Cubs first round pick in 2024, and slashed 313/.396/.609 in 134 minor league plate appearances, advancing to AA in the final week of the season.

The hope is that Smith can advance through the rest of the minors in 2025 and establish himself as a regular in 2026. It obviously could take longer, and, as will all prospects, it may not work out. He could be the next Matt Dominguez instead of the next Alex Bregman.

Which makes the choice to only get one prospect in the deal an odd one. Teams often like to trade players for multiple prospects because of the uncertainty of projecting how the skills of minor leaguers will translate to the majors. The Astros have a lot riding on Cam Smith to win this trade.

Major League Return

The rest of the return for Tucker are a pair of major leaguers. One is Hayden Wesneski, a right handed pitcher who has served as a swingman for the Cubs over his three major league seasons. He will mostly serve as rotation depth for the Astros, with the hope that the Astros effective pitching development program can find adjustments to improve his results.

The more important trade piece—and the one who will be in the Astros every day lineup in 2025 (whether at third base or first base)—is Isaac Parades. Parades is a quality player who had a big 2023 with the Rays, slashing .250/.352/.488 with 31 homers. That was good for 4.2 bWAR. He slumped some in 2024 to a .238/346/.393 slash line. But that was still good for 2.7 bWAR.

In short, he is a player with a high floor due to his strong walk rate (career 11.0%) and his ability to hit homers (in 4.0% of his career plate appearances; MLB average is 3.1%).

Parades is limited by his hit tool. He hits for a modest average in large part because he has a very low batting average on balls in play. His career BABIP of .245 is well below usual rates that are near .300.

As a result, Parades is not as good a player as Tucker. The Depth Chart projections has Parades slashing 245/.345/.432 for the Astros in 2025. Tucker is projected as better in each of the three components: .276/.366/.510.

Dana Brown literally chose Parades over prospects. I think this was the wrong choice.

A Downgrade in 2025. But When is the Upgrade?

The Astros lineup thus goes from having a potential MVP candidate to an expected above average player. And that downgrade will cost 2.3 wins according to the Depth Charts projection at Fangraphs.

Do 2 wins matter? The Astros didn’t need them in 2024 when the won the division by 4.5 games. But they sure were glad to have an extra 2 wins in 2023 when that made the difference between winning the division and getting a first round bye and missing the playoffs altogether.

The Astros still can win the AL West in 2025 but this move reduces their chances of doing so.

So what is the advantage of trading Tucker? This is the part that is hard to see. The Astros are trading present value in the better player for future value. Parades turns 26 in February and the Astros have him for 3 seasons before he reaches free agency. Parades will help the Astros in 2026 and 2027, when Tucker certainly would have provided none. He would have left in free agency.

But will the Astros be a better team in 2026 or 2027 than in 2025? It seems to me the answer is likely no. Ace Framber Valdez is a free agent after the 2025 season and is likely to be elsewhere, and Jose Altuve will be another year into his mid-30s. The Astros will have fewer star level players. More importantly, there are few young prospects to be stars or near stars. If one of Zach DeZenzo, Shay Whitcomb, or Jacob Melton becomes an average major league regular, that should be regarded as a success. Is the potential addition of Cam Smith enough to make the lineup good again? I’m skeptical. A bunch of prospects could make the future better. Does just one?

The Astros front office did not try to maximize their chances of winning in 2025. That is the choice that I preferred, but I found it to be a close call over the other option I thought they could pursue—exchanging players with but one year of control for players who could play for the Astros for many years. Instead, Dana Brown chose to go in between those two strategies, getting just one prospect and having much of the value in the trade come from a major leaguer with medium-term value. The team will be worse in 2025 because of this trade. When it will be better is unclear because of the choice to by half-in and half-out. I believe this is the wrong choice.