Should Altuve Move Off Of Second Base?
Jose Altuve's defensive abilities declined gradually for several years and then rapidly in 2024 primarily due to aging. He is likely to move to the outfield sometime soon, if not in 2025.
On Thursday of this week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Astros "are keeping the door ajar” with Alex Bregman. Confirmation of this scoop came quickly from Chandler Rome of The Athletic.
Just as surprising was the second part of Nightengale’s scoop. That if the Astros did re-sign Bregman, Jose Altuve would move to left field. Rome also confirmed this element.
At Fan Fest on Saturday, General Manager Dana Brown addressed Bregman by saying that a signing was “a long shot.”
The second part—about Altuve potentially moving to left field—is for right now the more important part of the scoop for right now. Why are the Astros considering moving Jose Altuve off second base, the only position where he has started a game in the majors.
The answer to that is pretty simple. Jose Altuve’s range at second base has declined in recent seasons, primarily as an effect of aging. Altuve’s declining defense has hurt his value to the Astros, particularly in the 2024 season.
The Astros may not move Altuve off of second base in the 2025 season, but one can expect them to do that sometime in the near future.
Declining Range
What’s the most important skill for a defender? It is range. For an infielder, it is the ability to move from side to side to get their glove to more ground balls than a less adroit fielder.
The best measure of a fielder is Outs Above Average, a Statcast metrics that takes into account 1) the position of the fielder, 2) the difficulty of getting to a batted ball and fielding it correctly. Higher numbers are better of course, and lower numbers are worse.
The figure below shows Altuve’s Outs Above Average and his “Range Run Value” based on those Statcast calculations since the measure was made public in 2025. Altuve started out as an average defender, but improved greatly for the 2018 season.
Since then, there has been a gradual decline for Altuve from 2019 to 2023, moving from above average to right about average. There is a big decline for Altuve in 2024. He declines to a Range Run Value of -6 and an Outs Above Average of -9.
That Altuve has a gradual decline from 2019 to 2023 and then a big decline in 2024 is not a surprising pattern. This is a pretty standard aging curve. The average baseball player tends to peak around age 26 or 27.
Defensive skills are believed to peak even earlier, so it is a measure of Altuve’s talent that he was able to improve defensively in his late 20s. But age is a cruel mistress, and Altuve declines defensively in his 30s.
In 2024 in his age 34 season, Altuve’s defensive numbers collapsed. For further evidence, see the table below, which posts Statcast measurements for different types of defensive movements.
Altuve is still good when coming in on slow hit balls. He was 10th best among major league second basemen coming in on balls. But in the other measures—going to his left, to his right, and going back on a ball—Altuve is one of the worst in the majors. Statcast can also measure the velocity when a fielder throws a ball, and Altuve has one of the weaker arms in the majors.
In short, Altuve is—at this point in his career—a poor fielder. He can come in a ball well, but not go side to side at a major league level. The line graph at the top of the page shows you this is the effects of aging. Getting old sucks, even for future Hall of Famers.
Hurting the Astros
How do you win baseball games? You outscore the other team. That means one way to win is through scoring a lot of runs; another is to prevent runs, and of course, the best way is to do both.
When Altuve was at his peak, his defense would contribute some to preventing runs and his offensive was a huge help to scoring them.
In 2024, Altuve helped the Astros with his bat, but took away value with his glove. Altuve created 22 runs above average with his bat, but took away 13 with his glove. Adding it together with some other sources of value, Altuve was 12 runs better than average. Obviously, still a contributing player thanks to his bat.
Compare those numbers to Altuve’s counterpart at second base in Arlington—Marcus Semien. Semien struggled at the plate in 2024 as was exactly league average, producing 0 batting runs. But Semien’s glove remained excellent, and and was 10 runs above average. Putting it together with other forms of value, Semien was credited with 18 runs above average in 2024.
By this measure, Semien was more valuable than Altuve entirely through his defensive numbers.
But maybe you don’t believe this numbers or their calculations. Fair enough. Let’s explain Altuve’s defensive decline through a clear example.
In Game 2 of the Wild Card Series against the Tigers, the Astros were up 2-1 in the eighth inning with one out and a runner on first. Matt Vierling hit a grounder toward the right side of the infield. Altuve was playing close to second base. He moved to his left, dove, and missed the ball.
A better second baseman could have had it. A younger Altuve would have had it. And that would have gone a long to preventing the 4 run Tiger rally that inning that essentially ended the Astros season.
In his newsletter the next day, Joe Sheehan highlighted Altuve’s inability to make that play.
“Once a good defender at second, at 34 [Altuve has] lost many steps. By DRS, he’s cost the Astros 13 to 15 runs a year every year since 2022, rating last among all second basemen in each of the three seasons….For the specific play in question, going to his left, Altuve rated as the second-worst second baseman in the game.
Altuve is a DH, and a pretty good one, playing second now. Last night, he helped cost the Astros their spot in the tournament. How much longer to leave Altuve at second is one of many decisions the team faces in a fascinating offseason.”
Sheehan’s final sentence there is quite prophetic. The Astros offseason has indeed been fascinating, if not productive. And the front office has been considering how much longer to leave Altuve at second.
They may not move him off of second base in 2025 because signing Bregman is, as Dana Brown said, a “long shot.” But Altuve’s defensive collapse is 2024 does not seem like a one year blip. Instead, it is part of a long trend of aging that even the best players cannot avoid.
Father Time is undefeated and Jose Altuve is the latest player to lose out.
Great article and very well written!