Ryan Pressly’s Gonna Cut You Down

Thanks to adjustments made by the Astros player development program, Astros managers came to rely on Ryan Pressly to get them out of the biggest jams. He delivered again and again.

Justin Verlander was cruising, until he wasn’t. Facing the top of the Cleveland order for the 3^rd time in the 6^th inning, Verlander suddenly loaded the bases on two singles and a walk. Suddenly an Astros playoff lead looked wobbly.

AJ Hinch turned to a new man in his bullpen, but the one he trusted to quell an opponent’s rally—Ryan Pressly. A groundout and a strikeout later, the Astros were out of the inning with the lead intact. Thanks to Pressly’s good work in the 6^th and a perfect 7^th and some add on runs, the Astros won Game 1 of the 2018 Division Series, on their way to a sweep of Cleveland.

Four years later, the situation was slightly different. It was the World Series. 8^th inning of Game 5 in a series tied at 2 and the Phillies rallied to score a run, put the tying run at 3^rd and the go ahead run at 1^st. There would be no more pivotal moment in this series.

Dusty Baker turned to his most experienced man in his bullpen, and the one he trusted to quell an opponent’s rally—Ryan Pressly. Pressly immediately struck out Brandon Marsh on 3 pitches and—with the help of some memorable defense by Trey Mancini and Chas McCormick—recorded the final 4 outs of Game 5.

Two nights later, Pressly had the responsibility to get the final three outs of a 4-1 game to close out the World Series. The lights went down in Minute Maid Park as Pressly’s entrance music—“God’s Gonna Cut You Down” by Johnny Cash—played.

You can run on for a long time
Run on for a long time
Run on for a long time
Sooner or later God'll cut you down
Sooner or later God'll cut you down

Pressly, playing the role of the avenging Almighty of the song lyrics—did indeed cut down the Phillies. Four batters later, Nick Castellanos hit a weak foul ball to right field and Kyle Tucker got the putout on the last out of the 2022 season.

Astros Adjustments Made the Difference

Ryan Pressly was essentially an average reliever in Minnesota, posting a 3.75 ERA in 317 relief innings for the Twins. Yet the Astros—and other analytically savvy teams—saw something in Pressly’s high spin rate. They thought there was a better pitcher in there, with just a few adjustments. The Astros traded for Pressly at the 2018 deadline.

The Astros made those adjustments—suggesting that Pressly shelve his sinker, throw his four-seam fastball up in the zone more, and throw his high spin, high movement curveball more often. These adjustments were effective. Pressly only gave up 2 runs in 23.1 innings the rest of the 2018.

Pressly remained an effective set-up man in 2019, and took over the closer’s job in 2020, holding it until the team signed Josh Hader. Over his seven seasons in Houston, Pressly made 342 relief appearances with a 2.81 ERA, striking out 5 batters for every 1 he walked.

He was just as good in the playoffs. In 47 playoff games for the Astros, Pressly had a 2.78 ERA with 60 strikeouts and 15 walks. He recorded 14 saves and 3 victories.

But the numbers do really tell the story of Pressly. That’s why I started off with the stories of his managers trusting him to shut down opponent’s rallies at the most pivotal moments. Pressly cut ‘em down in 2018 and kept doing it through the 2022 World Series.

You can run on for a long time. Sooner or later, Ryan Pressly’s gonna cut you down.

A Trade for Budget Reasons

The decision to trade Ryan Pressly this weekend was done almost entirely for financial reasons. The Astros are spending too much on the bullpen and Pressly’s $14 million salary was surplus to needs. The Astros paid $5 million of that salary to get back an intriguing prospect in pitcher Juan Bello, but one who is a couple of years away from contributing on a mound in Houston.

It is possible that the front office will use the savings to sign another player to address a potential lineup hole. But as Ken Rosenthal and Chandler Rome wrote in The Athletic yesterday trading Pressly and his contract “has been one of the Astros foremost offseason goals.” Thus, the connection to signing another player “is a piece of pure coincidence.”

Thus the real winner of the Pressly trade from the Astros standpoint is Jim Crane’s heirs. Their inheritance likely went up.

Which is why I have focused here on memories of Pressly. Trading him may have been necessary to reduce the team’s luxury tax payment this season and is part of the by-product of having so much dead money tied up in the contracts of Jose Abreu and Rafael Montero.

The financial part of baseball can suck for us fans. That’s why I’m choosing to focus on the memories of Pressly. He was one tough customer in the back of the Astros bullpen for 7 seasons. And an even tougher one in some the toughest at bats of the playoffs.

One can see that in the choice AJ Hinch made to bring Pressly into his first playoff game not in a comfortable situation at the start of an inning, but in the middle of a full-blown bases loaded jam. Pressly was the guy Hinch trusted in a pivotal at bat.

The manager changed but the trust didn’t. Dusty Baker knew he had to win Game 5 of the 2022 World Series and he knew he need a strike out of Brandon Marsh with a runner on third base and less than two outs.

For both Hinch and Baker, Pressly did what he did so often for the Astros in the late innings of a game. He delivered, squelching an opponent’s rally.

Go do that now in Chicago, Press.