Playoff Race Assessment with a Sixth of The Season to Go
The Astros are 4 games up in the AL West, a place that is both enviable--a 90% chance of winning the division--and unstable--a 10% chance of losing it.
The ninth inning last night was ugly. Jeremy Pena committed an error, which meant that Paul DeJong’s Crawford Box special was a two run shot which tied the game.
But then Jose Altuve came to bat in the bottom of the ninth, and, as it often is when Altuve bats, it was beautiful.
The win allowed the Astros to remain 4 games up on the Marinersin the AL West.
The victory also closed out the Fifth Sixth of the Astros season. I like to think of the baseball season in six segments of 27 games. Each Sixth is about a month long, but has the advantage of being the same number of games, allowing for equal comparison.
The win last night meant that the Astros just closed out their most successful Sixth of the season, going 17-10 after four straight Sixths with a 16-11 record.
In a Race for the AL West, Sort Of
The Astros 4 game division lead puts them in an unusual position. It is different than last season, when the Astros were tied with the Mariners and just 1 game ahead of the Rangers after Game 135 of the season. That situation called for the Astros to play every game for the final Sixth of the season like it was a playoff game.
It is also very different from 2022, when the Astros sat 11 games ahead of the Mariners in the AL West, with the division locked up for months. That situation called for the Astros to focus their resources on preparation for the playoffs, including providing lots of rest to those who would be most important that October.
With 27 games left in the season, the Astros have an 89.2% chance of winning the AL West, according to Fangraphs.1
You can see how these odds have fluctuated throughout the season in the chart below, and how the Astros odds greatly increased as they won 11 of 12 between August 6 and August 19. As did the odds that Scott Servais would be fired.
The Astros cannot ignore the division race. There is a 1-in-10 scenario where the Mariners come back from this deficit. They need to continue to win games and suffering a losing streak would open up the door for the Mariners to get back in the AL West race relatively quickly.
But the chances of that are not very good. The Astros are a more talented team than the Mariners. The Astros nearly match the Mariners in run prevention as the pitching staff has carried the team over the last few months. But the Astros have a much better offense. The Mariners could go on a big winning streak, but as punchless as their bats have been this season, that does not seem likely.
The Astros are also 4 games back in the race to get a bye into the Division Series. Fangraphs puts the odds of the Astros catching one of the two other division winners at 19.8%. A bye is a good prize because those teams face one fewer round of the crapshoot that is the playoffs. But the chances that the Astros avoid the best-of-three Wild Card Series are low.
The Dilemma for Joe Espada
Joe Espada thus faces a bigger dilemma in how to employ his personnel than Dusty Baker did in the last two seasons. In 2022, Baker could focus entirely on preparation for October; in 2023, he had to focus entirely on winning as many games as possible. Espada has a more difficult task—he must balance these two imperatives.
Should Espada give his star players off days on a regular or slightly accelerated schedule? He probably should because he needs to avoid injuries and have them in the best condition for October. Espada did this on Monday in Philadelphia when he gave Jose Altuve the day off. Espada passed over Ryan Pressly last night in the 8th inning in favor of Bryan Abreu, likely because Espada did not want Pressly to go back-to-back nights so soon after a back injury.
Espada has also had to manage around Alex Bregman’s elbow injury, which kept him out of the lineup last night. Kyle Tucker look likely to return soon from his leg injury, and Espada should give Tucker plenty of rest to help him build up to playoff form.
But there are clear limits to how much rest Espada can give his star players, because this team is of course dependent on those stars, especially on offense.
Espada seems to have a couple of players he more fully trusts to play near the limits of any players. This list includes:
Jeremy Pena—only one rest day since June 21.
Yainer Diaz—he’s started at designated hitter or first base every time his backup Victor Caratini has started at catcher save one since mid-June.
Bryan Abreu—leads all AL relievers in appearances.
All three are high level players for the Astros. And all three are relatively young—each is younger than 28.
Espada has also gotten help in his ability to be aggressive from the front office. Over the last few weeks, the Astros have added three players in Ben Gamel, Jason Hayward, and Hector Neris who will play important roles for the team in the last Sixth of the season.
The addition of Gamel and Hayward—both left handed hitting outfielders—will allow Espada to be more aggressive in using platoons in left field, right field, and first base, and to be aggressive—well, more aggressive—in using pinch hitters in high leverage situations. These additions were made with the idea to use every spot on the roster to not only maximize advantages during the game, but to spread out the plate appearances—and thus rest—across games.
The Astros sit in an enviable position, well up in a division race and likely headed for the playoffs. They are sit in an insecure position. They cannot just coast to a division title over the season’s final 27 games.
The team—especially Joe Espada—needs to manage this well over the final stretch of the season. But if they do this at a competent level, they should win the division…again.
If you want to feel even better about the division, check out the PECOTA odds, developed by Baseball Prospectus. They say the Astros have a 94.5% chance of an AL West title.