Pitching is Carrying the Astros to the Top of the AL West Once Again
The Astros lead the AL West by 6.5 games at the halfway point of the season thanks to excellent pitching from Cy Young candidate Hunter Brown, the steady Framber Valdez, and a stout and deep bullpen.
You’ve seen some variation of this comment: the Astros lost Kyle Tucker and Alex Bregman in the offseason; Yordan Alvarez has been on the IL most of the season and Christian Walker apparently gave away his powers as part of his free agent contest. How are the Astros doing this?
You’ve seen it on social media; your friends have sent it in a text message. Heck, you might have even said something like this in a conversation.
So what is the answer? How indeed are the Astros doing it?
Well, if you watched the Astros play the Phillies over the last 3 games, you saw how. The Astros scored only 5 runs. They really could have used Kyle Tucker, or Alex Bregman, or a Yordan Alvarez with an intact wrist, or heck, Glen Davis stepping out of Delorean that found 1.21 gigawatts back in 1985.
But the Astros got a sweep because they only allowed the Phillies to score only a solitary run over 27 innings. The Astros received excellent starts from their two aces—Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez. Both went 7 shutout innings in their starts against Philadelphia. The Astros bullpen also showed out. They threw 8 innings against the Phillies, allowing only a single run, walking only one batter, and striking out 14.
That was an extreme version of what the Astros have been doing all season—their pitching has kept the other team from scoring.
Halfway Home To Another AL West Crown
The win over the Phillies also ended the first half of the 2025 season for the Astros. They have played 81 games and are on pace to win 96 games and to win the AL West by 13 games. It’s an enviable position to be in.
How good? We have some context for that. The Astros 48-33 record is their best at the halfway mark over the last 3 seasons. Of course, it’s only the 5th best record the team has had at the halfway point since 2015. But of course, the team has won 100 games in 4 different seasons. We are so blessed as Astros fans.
The one run win on Thursday, combined with the one-run win on Tuesday, makes the Astros 17-7 in one-run games, which is the best in the majors. Usually, one-run games are coin flips and having a good record in one-run games is a sign of a team’s good fortune, rather than their true ability. But that does not seem to be the case for the Astros. The Astros pythagorean or expected record—which is based on the number of runs a team scores and allows—is just one game below their actual record. The Astros third order record—based on how many runs they should have scored and should have allowed is just 2 games below their actual record. That’s only a modest amount of luck.
The Astros record in blowout games is excellent. They have won 12 games by a margin of 5 runs or more and lost only 6 of such games. Good teams usually romp in blowouts, and the Astros have one of the best records in baseball in blowouts. The Astros issue is in games decided by 2 to 4 runs. They are 19-20 in these games.
Hunter Brown for Cy
On Thursday, Hunter Brown went 7 innings, allowed only 3 baserunners and struck out 9 Phillies, inducing 16 whiffs. It was quite impressive. It also was completely expected. Hunter Brown has developed into one of the best pitchers in the American League.
With his 7-shutout innings yesterday, Brown moved into the top spot in the AL in ERA. He leads the league in batting average allowed, slugging percentage allowed, OPS allowed, strikeout percentage, adjusted ERA, and adjusted pitching runs.
HIs four-seam fastball has been worth 16 runs this season, the most of any 4 seamer of any major league pitcher. Opponents are hitting .103 against that 4-seamer, with a slugging percentage of .131. Heck, they have trouble even hitting it. He’s getting whiffs on 33% of the swings opponents take against that fastball.
While opposing hitters swing-and-miss a ton on Brown’s pitches, they are also cannot square him up when they do make contact. Brown has allowed the lowest exit velocity and the lowest hard-hit percentage of any major league starter this season. As a result, he is particularly effective over the middle of the plate. According to Statcast, Brown has produced a run value of +19 on pitches in the heart of the strike zone, which is the best in the majors.
But it all together, and Hunter Brown has produced 3.9 bWAR on the season. That is the highest in the American League. Yep, Hunter Brown has developed into a Cy Young candidate.
The Best Bullpen in Baseball?
Brown’s 1.74 ERA is of course remarkably impressive since it’s come from 16 starts. But similarly impressive is the ERA of the Astros bullpen. Four members of the bullpen have an ERA lower than Brown’s this season—Shawn Dubin (1.33), Bennett Sousa (1.57), Bryan Abreu (1.72) Josh Hader (1.73). In addition, Steven Okert has an ERA in the 2s (2.52), and Bryan King checks in at 3.17.
That’s 6 of the 8 arms in the bullpen preventing runs at an above average level on the season, with most of them at an elite level of run prevention.
Overall, the Astros bullpen has an ERA of 3.22, second best in the majors. They lead the majors in strikeouts per nine innings, strikeout to walk ratio, batting average allowed, WHIP (walks plus hits per innings pitched), SIERA (skill interactive ERA), and fWAR.
According to Fangraphs, the Astros bullpen has recorded 5.82 Win Probability Added. Win Probability Added is a statistic adds up how much win probability recording an out adds or allowing a baserunner subtracts to a team’s chances of winning the game based on the inning and baserunner situation. In short, it accounts for high leverage situations. And the Astros bullpen is excellent in these situations.
How good is the Astros bullpen in the clutch? Their 5.81 Win Probability Added leads the majors. And it leads by more than an entire win over the second place bullpen; the Giants bullpen has 4.74 WPA. It’s a two-win gap to the 4th best bullpen—Cleveland is at 3.70 WPA.
Framber Valdez is Framber Valdez
The Astros other pitching hero in the Phillies series was a familiar pitching hero—Framber Valdez. Valdez is pitching this season like he does every season—very effectively.
He once again has a ERA under 3.00, as he has had in 3 out of the last 4 seasons. He’s at 2.88 in 16 starts this season.
He once again is striking out right around 24% of the batters he faces. He’s been within 1% of 24.0% in K% for 4 straight year. This year he’s at 24.6%.
He once again is getting a ton of ground balls. His 59.5% ground ball rate is 3rd highest among all qualified starters. He has induced 13 ground ball double players—4th most of any major league pitcher.
And he once again is allowing opposing hitters an OPS right around .600. He’s been within 20 points of .600 in 3 out of the last 4 seasons.
In short, Framber is pitching like Framber, which is to say that he’s one of the best pitchers in the league. Valdez’s 2.6 bWAR is tied for 10th highest among American League pitchers.
Thanks to Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez, and a stout and deep bullpen, the Astros pitched their way to a sweep of the Phillies this week. You can’t win if you don’t score, and it’s hard to score against the Astros.
How hard? The Astros pitching is allowing opponents to score only 3.56 runs per game this season. That’s the 2nd lowest rate of any team in the majors.
The Astros have pitched their way to 48 wins and a 6.5 game lead in the AL West. The pitching—led by Brown, Valdez, and the deep bullpen—is why they are on their way to another AL West crown.
Great summary BA ⭐️🔥👍🏻