Pitching and Defense Have Led to Lots of Wins: A Second Sixth Report
The Starting Pitching Was Excellent. The Bullpen Was Excellent. The Defense Was Excellent. And The Offense Did Enough to Win a Bunch and Take Control of the AL West
It looked like it would end smoothly after Ryan Pressly got the first two men out in the bottom of the ninth yesterday. Then some stuff happened. And two pitchers, four batters, and one run later, it actually ended. But regardless of how strange the bottom of the 9th inning was yesterday, the Astros secured the victory. The 7-4 win over the Royals not only closed out the 3 game set in Kansas City and the 9 game road trip, but it also closed out the second sixth of the season.
Here at the Orange Fire Substack, we mark the season through each 27 game block in which the Astros play—or each sixth of the season. While you usually see discussions of the end of the month, I prefer sixths for two reasons:
1) It’s easier to compare sixths because they are equal. So Jeremy Pena’s slash line of 320/.350/.440 compares pretty well to his 233/.302/.500 slash line from the first sixth of the season. He’s maintaining his high level of play.
2) The math is easier. The Astros have now played 54 games—which is two-sixth or one-third of the season. You can take all of their counting stats and multiply by 3. So Yordan Alvarez has hit 16 homers, scored 35 runs and driven in 34. Multiply those by 3 and you can see that he’s on pace for 46 homers, 102 runs scored, and 105 ribbies on the season.
You can also go back and read my report on the first sixth of the season and compare how the team is doing now to how it was doing after action on May 6.
The Record
Overall Record: 35-19 (.648)
Record This Sixth: 19-8 (.703)
On Pace for a Record of: 105-57
This is the team’s best sixth in the two seasons that this blog has been tracking their record by sixths.
The began the sixth during the 11-game win streak, and the last six were in this sixth. They lost a series to Boston, but then responded by winning five of seven on the homestand against the Rangers and Guardians. They lost a series at Seattle, but then responded by winning five of the last six in the sixth against the Athletics and Royals.
The Astros have entered a stretch where they play a month’s worth of games against teams that are not currently in playoff position. That started with the interleague series in Washington and will continue for another two weeks until they face the Mets. Right now, they are 15-8 in this stretch, which is what you expect a good team to do when facing a series of mediocre to bad teams.
The Offense
R/G: 4.13 (23rd). OBP: .311 (18th). SLG: .404 (10th). OPS: .716 (14th). OPS+: 108 (9th).
Let’s start with the glass half-empty part of the review of the offense. The runs per game number is in the bottom third of the league. They are not scoring a lot of runs.
Now let’s move to the glass half-full part. The runs/game number is the worst by far of any of the major offensive numbers for the Astros. They should be scoring more runs.
And in the second sixth, they did. The team averaged 4.5 runs per game over the 27 game stretch, with a slash line of .247/.326/.425; that’s a team OPS of .750. Astro hitters make good swing decisions, as evidenced by their above average rate of walks (9.3% this sixth) and below average rate of strikeouts (18.7% this sixth).
Of course, offense around the league went up over that period, so some of those gains are explained by the run-scoring environment (warmer weather? regression to the mean? Manfred changed the ball again?) And, as a result, they fell down the runs/game chart.
On April 25, I examined the Astros offense and concluded the bats “are likely to improve on their bad numbers so far this season, but they seem to have taken a step back from the juggernaut offense we say in 2021.” Both of these conclusions still hold up. The offense should improve, especially in the number of runs it scores. But the hitters have collectively taken a step back from 2021, when they led American League in runs scored.
The Pitching
Team Pitching and MLB Rank
RA/G: 3.24 (2nd). FIP: 3.57 (6th). WHIP: 1.13 (4th). K/9: 8.3 (20th). BB/9: 2.8 (5th)
The Astros have won a ton of games primarily because they have kept their opponents from scoring runs. They allowed only 83 runs over the second sixth, which is just over 3 runs per game. As I headlined my piece on the big winning streak, “If They Don’t Score, They Can’t Win.” The Astros win streak may have ended, but the run prevention that created the streak has continued.
The Astros pitching staff remains a team with a relatively low strikeout rate. They are 20th best in the majors in that category. But they have greatly improved their control this season, and are walking only 2.8 batters per nine innings. That, and a low rate of hits allowed, keeps their team WHIP very low. So Astro opponents are finding out that if they don’t get to first base, they can’t score. And as discussed in the paragraph above, if they can’t score, they can’t win.
The Fielding
Team Fielding and Rank
Fielding Runs Above Average: 21 (3rd). Defensive Runs Saved: 31 (2nd). Ultimate Zone Rating: 7.3 (4th). Outs Above Average: 21 (1st). Defensive Efficiency .722 (3rd) Errors: 23 (T-5th)
The Astros are an outstanding defensive team, as shown by just about every team defensive metric available. That has helped to limit the damage caused by high walk totals produced by the pitching staff. Opposing batters have a .221 batting average against Astro hurlers, and the defense has played an key role in taking away hits from the opposition. Opponents have only a .263 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) against the Astros, the second lowest in all of baseball.
Astro hurlers may not be striking out a large share of batters, but the ability of the defense to turn batted balls into outs helps the pitching succeed despite that low strikeout rate.
It is worth noting that the team had an excellent defense last season, but some numbers indicate that it is better this season. The team lost the Platinum Glove winner in Carlos Correa, but has not missed a beat defensively with his replacement Jeremy Pena. Jose Siri has proven to be an excellent defensive center fielder, and the addition of Mauricio Dubon as a utility man has only strengthened the team defense.
Notable Player Performances
Jose Altuve .281/.343/.563. 7 HR. 18 R. 12 RBI. 164 wRC+
Altuve is of course the heart of the team, and he’s been excellent since coming back from the injured list. One of his best stretches since his MVP season in 2017.
Framber Valdez 42.2 IP. 6 GS. 5-0. 2.11 ERA. 36 Ks. 11 BB
Valdez led the team in starts, innings pitched, ERA, and strikeouts over the sixth. But the number that stands out the most to me is the walk number. For his career, Valdez has walked 3.9 hitters per nine innings. In this sixth, he walked only 2.3 hitters per nine. And with all the movement he gets on his pitches, it is hard to hit the ball against Framber.
The Bullpen. 77.2 IP. 2.55 ERA. 1.15 WHIP. 2.45 K/BB Ratio. 8 Saves. 0 Blown Saves
In last year’s second sixth report, I had an item on the bullpen and said the good news is “it could be worse…But when the good news is that its just awful, not godawful. It’s not good news at all.” This is the exact opposite. The bullpen has been outstanding and the biggest worry spot of the first sixth—the health and swing-and-miss capability of Ryan Pressly—has worked itself out to excellent results. The bullpen had a Wins Probability Added stat of 1.74 over the sixth, the second best in baseball in that time.
Yordan Alvarez. .316/.405/.642. 20 Runs. 19 RBI. 11.7 BB%. 16.2% K%
Yes, he’s been as good as you thought he’s been. On Friday, Alvarez agreed to a contract extension with the Astros that will keep in in orange and blue through the 2028 season. And I’m guess Jim Crane’s biggest thought this weekend in Kansas City was “I’m glad we agreed to the deal before he asked for more money.”
Their Place in the Race
Overall Record: 35-19 (.648)
1st Place. 8½ Game Ahead of the Angels
Run Differential: +48
Expected Record: 33-21
With the calendar passing Memorial Day, it becomes useful to take an occasional peak at the standings. And well, the Astros are in a really good place.
When the sixth began on May 7, the Astros were 16-11 and in second place in the division, a game and a half behind the Angels. Since then, the Astros have had a good sixth, going 19-8. And for the Angels…welp. They have lost 2 out of every 3 games, going 9-18. Their odds of making the playoffs have declined nearly in half—from 68.7% to 34.8%—according to the projections used by Fangraphs.
As to the AL West, the Astros saw their odds of winning the division go down in the season’s first week, reaching its nadir on May 1 at 51.1%. Today, the Astros odds of winning the division are 96.7.
This is all a reminder of what you already know—we cheer for a very good baseball team. And clearly the best team in the AL West.