My Game 1 Analysis: Skubal was Better Than Framber; The Offense Couldn't Singles; the Tigers Defense Came Up Big at the Right Time; Espada Manages For the Platoon Advantage
Framber Valdez was okay on Tuesday afternoon at Minute Maid Park. It was not a performance to write home about, but Valdez righted himself after giving up 3 runs on 4 singles in a walk in the second inning, going unscathed for another 2.1 innings, despite giving up three more baserunners.
The issue was he could not match zeroes with Tarik Skubal, who was excellent for the Tigers. Skubal struck out 6 of the 22 Astros he faced. Of the 16 who hit the ball, the one one to hit one for a long distance was Alex Bregman, who hit one off of the Crawford Box wall in the sixth. But other than that, the Astros could not square up Skubal when they hit him.
This contrasts with the Tigers in the second inning against Valdez. The hits by Wenceel Perez, Jake Rogers, Trey Sweeney, and Matt Vierling were all singles. But, as Mike Petriello of MLB.com shows, all met the Statcast definition of “squared up.”
In my series preview, I noted that the Tigers pitching staff has a low walk rate and that the Astros hitters have a low walk rate. As a result, we should not expect a lot of walk this series. That held up, as Tigers pitchers only walked 2 of the 36 Astros they faced.
But I also noted that the Tigers pitchers did not strike out a lot of batters, nor do the Astros hitters strike out often. That did not hold up, as the Tigers struck out 10 of those 36 Astros. The surprise was the Will Vest, who retired all 5 Astros he faced, 4 by strikeout. Of course, 3 of those were looking. That was the most frustrating part of the game for me as an Astros fan.
With their lack of strikeouts and walks, the Astros rely on their high batting average (i.e. hitting lots of singles) to be an effective offense. Today, for eight innings, they got only 4 singles.
Singles finally came in the 9th inning, as both Alex Bregman and Yainer Diaz had ground balls find holes in the infield to score a run (Yordan Alvarez had doubled off of Jason Foley), and to set up the Astros with first and second with nobody out down 2 runs.
But is was the lack of opportunities early that really spelled doom for the Astros. The Astros had only 3 plate appearances with a runner in scoring position before the 9th inning. That’s way too few to expect a lot of scoring.
Defense mattered in this game. The Astros were unable to turn a double play in the top of the second, in large part because the hitter, Parker Meadows, ran really fast.
The Tigers are an excellent defensive team, and that showed up in the bottom of the 9th inning. After the Bregman and Diaz singles, Jeremy Pena laid down a sacrifice bunt. It was a very good bunt, and in many cases, it might have led to a base hit or a throwing error at first base. But Jake Rogers, one of the Tigers best defenders, was quick and decisive getting to the ball from his catcher position, and made an accurate throw to first base.
On batter later, Victor Caratini hit a looping liner into left field. Balls hit at that exit velocity and launch angle have a 66% chance of falling in for a base hit. But Riley Greene had a good jump on the ball and got to it quickly to keep the Astros from scoring. A lesser left fielder might have led to a game tying hit. Unfortunately for the Astros, Greene is an excellent left fielder (14 Defensive Runs Saved).
Joe Espada managed heavily based on getting platoon advantages. The Tigers best hitters are Greene and Kerry Carpenter, both left handed batters. That the Astros best pitcher is the Valdez set the Astros up well, as the Tigers sit Carpenter when facing a left handed starter.
Espada kept Valdez in the game to face right handed hitting designated hitter Justin-Henry Malloy in the top of the 5th to avoid a Carpenter pinch hit. Malloy singled. Then Espada kept Valdez in to face Greene. Greene struck out. Then Espada relieved Valdez with Hector Neris, allowing the Tigers to pinch hit lefty Colt Keith.
Lefty Bryan King was tasked with the sixth inning, as the Tigers had two lefties up among their first three batters in Meadows and Trey Sweeney. When that pocket ended, Ronel Blanco was summoned to give some length from the bullpen. He faced Malloy’s spot in the order in the 7th. Carpenter pinch hit and grounded out.
Carpenter’s spot came up again in the 8th, and Espada turned to Caleb Ferguson. Matt Vierling was at first base and was thrown out trying to advance on a wild pitch.
That meant Carpenter’s spot was up in the 9th, and Espada when to Josh Hader to get the platoon advantage against three straight lefties.
Expect to see more of King and Ferguson in particular spots against the Tigers lefties tomorrow. Hader will again be reserved for the ninth.
Tomorrow is obviously must win. There is some level of analysis to such a game. The Astros now have the pitching advantage in the early innings, and will have Hunter Brown on the mound to start the game.
And at some level, analysis doesn’t do much for you. The Astros must hit the ball better tomorrow and create more scoring opportunities than they did today. There’s every reason to believe they can do that, but there is no margin for error.
Three hours later and I still wish Jason Heyward’s ball was just two feet higher.