McCullers Injury Raises the Question of Starting Pitching Depth

The Astros have several internal options as rotation depth this season. Hunter Brown could be very good, but there are more questions if the team needs a seventh starter.

On Tuesday of last week, Lance McCullers threw a bullpen session and his elbow was “a little sore” afterwards. In reporting the injury on Friday, Dusty Baker told reporters to “chill” and “don’t make something (out of it).”

Yesterday, we got word that we could make something out of it. An MRI on Tuesday night showed a “small muscle strain” that McCullers suffered in that bullpen session last week. The strain will keep him from throwing for “a couple weeks,” according to McCullers. As a result “Opening day is out of the question.”

Sorry, Dusty, but I’m no longer “chill.”

Chandler Rome @Chandler_Rome

Lance McCullers Jr. said he had an MRI yesterday that revealed a “small muscle strain.” He is shut down for a few weeks. “Opening day is out of the question,” he said.

McCullers did describe his diagnosis as a “best-case scenario” because the imaging revealed no structural damage in the elbow. And McCullers said his goal was still to throw “150, 160 innings” this season after he returns.

Lance McCullers taking questions from the media on Wednesday about his injured right arm.

But McCullers has a long history of elbow injuries, having made more than 22 starts only once in his career. McCullers suffered an elbow injury in 2018 that required Tommy John surgery, costing him the entire 2019 season. And he suffered another elbow injury in the 2021 ALDS which shut him down for the rest of that year’s playoffs and for the first four months of the 2022 season.

McCullers may be optimistic that he will be out for only a few starts, but his history is a cause for pessimism.

The Starting Options After McCullers

So what will the Astros do in the absence of McCullers? New General Manager Dana Brown spoke to the media on Wednesday, and, according to Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, “did not sound like someone intent on adding from outside the organization. The first-year general manager pulled out a depth chart and began to recite names he hoped will absorb McCullers’ absence.”

At the top of that depth chart was Hunter Brown, who will be the immediate replacement for McCullers. We saw nasty stuff from Brown, the 2022 PCL Pitcher of the Year, in his appearances for the Astros after his major league call-up. In 20.1 major league innings, Brown struck out 22 batters while walking only 7. He did not allow a home run, giving him an excellent 1.98 FIP in that small sample. Brown’s performance was good enough to earn a spot on the playoff roster, where he threw 3.2 shaky but scoreless innings.

Yesterday, Fangraphs released its list of the Top 100 prospects in baseball, and Brown was listed at 34. Authors Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin write that “Brown’s arm strength and velocity have been sculpted to replicate the power-pitching formula in Houston” and that “it was the strike throwing that took a step forward in 2022 and led to his September call-up.” They note that while Brown’s “fastball locations are still pretty scattered…his stuff is so nasty that he can be imprecise and still beat hitters.”

Brown’s performance last season should give Astro fans lots of confidence when he steps in for McCullers and if and when he has to step in for any other injured Astro starting pitcher. The different projection systems estimate that Brown will have an ERA between 3.40 and 3.77 with an above average strikeout rate and an above average walk rate. Brown has an excellent chance to be one of the Astros five best starting pitchers, even if all of the veterans are healthy.

The biggest question becomes what happens if another starter is needed beyond Brown. The Astros are six-deep in high quality starting pitchers, but their starting reserves fall off after that.

The #7 starter is likely Brandon Bielak. Bielak has gone up and down on the shuttle between Sugar Land and Minute Maid Park over the last three seasons.

Bielak can be cromulent. Projections systems estimate that will have a major league ERA in 2023 between 4.08 and 4.49. He strikes out fewer batters than major league average, but walks more than average. To give you some context, Jake Odorizzi had a 4.04 ERA in his 2 seasons in the Astros rotation with a below average strikeout rate but an average walk rate.

So Bielak is a modest step down from Odorizzi. His skills would be enough to get the Astros through a rough spot where they lack another pitcher, but Bielak does not look like a pitcher the team should trust to make a bunch of starts. He can keep you in a game, but can’t win you one.

After Bielak, the next option is likely J.P. France, who has bigger strikeout potential than Bielak, but has had issues with command throughout his minor league career. France allowed a 10.6% walk rate in his 110.2 innings at Sugar Land in 2022.

And beyond France is the mystery box that is Forrest Whitley. Whitley was once a top prospect, but between injuries and a suspension, he still has yet to make his major league debut. He is likely to do so this season, but he needs to improve on the 7.08 ERA and 6.8 BB/9 numbers he posted in 2022 at Sugar Land.

The team will be in really good shape if McCullers returns quickly or if the rest of the scheduled starting rotation stays healthy. If they need to put Bielak in the rotation for a month or two, they will be okay. Bielak is not likely to be a disaster, though you would prefer to reduce his innings as much as possible. Options beyond Bielak get are more worrisome.

Should the Front Office Have Signed Another Starting Pitcher?

The concerns about the #7 starter raise the question of whether the front office should have pursued another starter in the offseason.

In discussing pitching depth yesterday, Rome wrote “Given McCullers’ lengthy injury history…the team’s inaction on the starting pitching market this offseason is curious. sure, it had five established starters returning and a prominent rookie behind them, but insurance is always appreciated.”

But is it appreciated by those who are the insurance? It is possible that the Astros sounded out a number of pitchers who could be the team’s #7 starter, but an offer to be a #7 starter is an offer to be a long reliever until two starters get injured. That’s not that enticing an offer, especially if it included a minor league contract and the understanding that the player would spend some of the 2023 season in AAA.

It seems to me that there is a mismatch between what the Astros have to offer (maybe you’ll get some starts if things go wrong) and what bottom end free agent pitchers want—the chance to compete for a real rotation spot and a major league contract. As such, I find it hard to criticize the front office too much for failing to sign an extra starting pitcher. The players have agency too and an Astros offer is not that attractive for good reasons—the rest of the starting pitching is good and so durable that a veteran does not think he’ll get a real opportunity to pitch here.

The front office may try to identify a starting pitcher is in danger of losing a spot on a 40-man roster with another franchise and making a small trade for him. That being said, it may be difficult to pull off such a deal for two reasons: 1) there are not many starting pitchers in such a situation because teams want to keep starting pitchers, 2) the Astros would need to get a pitcher who still has minor league options and if a pitcher does have such options, then their team is just likely to send them the AAA for depth.

The model for the type of deal I’m thinking of is the Mauricio Dubon for Mike Papierski deal the team struck last May to improve the 2nd utility infielder position. But Dubon was available because he was out of options and the Giants wanted to get something for him rather than release him for nothing. The Astros don’t really have an extra roster spot on their 26-man roster for a swing man.

Over the long term, injuries to the starting rotation may compel the team to look for a starting pitcher at the trade deadline. The team can get by for several weeks giving starts to Bielak and/or France. But neither should be close to the mound in the playoffs and in an ideal world, Jose Urquidy would be limited to mop-up duty in the playoffs like in 2022.

But that is an issue for July and a worse-case scenario. Until then, the Astros are likely to have to rely on their internal depth to weather the storm created by McCullers’ injury, and any future injuries that they might suffer in the starting rotation. For the moment, they are in good shape thanks to Hunter Brown. After that, it gets dicey, but manageable.

Well, in 2020, the shuttle was from the alternate site in Corpus Christi.