Matt Chapman's Contract Confirms What We Suspected: Jim Crane Will Have to Break His 5-Year Rule to Re-Sign Alex Bregman

Overnight, news leaked that Matt Chapman had signed a six-year, $25 million a year contract extension with the Giants. The Giants quickly confirmed the news.

So why does that matter on an Astros Substack? Well, it’s hard to find a more exact comparison to Astros third baseman Alex Bregman than Matt Chapman. And that includes the fact that like Chapman, Bregman’s contract will expire at the end of this season.

What will take to sign Bregman this offseason? For the Giants, it took a six year contract to sign Chapman, which provides a really good guide for the Astros. And as Astros owner, Jim Crane has never signed a contract with a player that covers more than 5 free agent seasons.

Jim Crane will have to break his 5-year rule to re-sign Alex Bregman. We all suspected that before, but the Chapman contract confirms it.

A Near Exact Comp

How good of a comp to Bregman is Chapman. Take a look at their career arcs below. Both peaked in the late 2010s in their mid 20s and have become steady contributors in the 2020s.

Bregman’s career bWAR is 38.6. Chapman’s is essentially the same at 37.3.

They get to the same value through different skill sets. Chapman is of course a better defender (Career Defensive Runs Saved: Chapman 107, Bregman 23). Bregman has better plate discipline, which leads to him getting on base more. (Career OBP: Bregman .367; Chapman .329).

But overall, they are very similar players. For example, see their career slugging percentage. Chapman is at .448; Bregman is at .445.

There are two important differences between the two players that are quite meaningful in the context of their free agent value.

One is that Chapman is having a “platform” season here in 2024. Chapman has provided 6 wins worth of value this season, thanks in large part to still elite defense (13 Defensive Runs Saved) and a quality offensive season (121 OPS+). Bregman has produced 3 runs of value this season—his hitting is slightly behind Chapman (115 OPS+) and his defense is well behind (2 DRS).

Similar Value Should Produce Similar Contracts

All this leads to a clear conclusion. Bregman and Chapman’s value moving forward seem pretty similar.

Bregman being younger may lead him to a 1 year longer contract. But he should get a very similar contract to Chapman.

Of course, there is another way to think about the Chapman free agency. Chapman was a free agent last offseason, and signed a 1 year contract (with two player options) for $18 million.

Put his two free agent contracts together, and coming off his age 30 season, Chapman signed for 7 years and $169 million.

Or if you think of Chapman's 2 free agencies as a combined one (he signed a 1 year deal with options last offseason), then Chapman got 7 years, $24.1 a year.

Bregman and his agent Scott Boras will argue that he’s worth more than that, and market forces might dictate that he will get more in annual salary (I’d be surprised if he got more years).

The 5-Year Rule

The biggest issue from an Astros perspective is not the annual salary; it’s the years. As I have noted on many occasions, Jim Crane has never signed a player to a contract that covers more than 5 free agent seasons. I have dubbed this the “5-year rule.”

Crane is willing to sign players to extensions and free agent contract that cover 5 years or fewer of free agent seasons. In fact, Bregman signed such an extension in the Spring of 2019 which covered his first two seasons as a free agent.

The Matt Chapman contract extension confirms that every Astros fan has suspected for a while now. In order to re-sign Alex Bregman as a free agent, it will take a contract that lasts more than 5 years.

Jim Crane will have to break his 5-year rule for the first time in his ownership to get Alex Bregman back in Houston for the 2025 season. He has not done that yet, and we will have to see if he does that between now and next season.