Loperfido is Coming Up. But Who's Going Down?
The big issue is not that Loperfido is coming up, but that somebody is going down. Whether it's Singleton, Meyers, Kessinger, or Abreu will tell us what to expect from the newest Astro.
News came on Sunday evening that the Astros were calling up Joey Loperfido from AAA Sugar Land. This is obviously big news as Astros fans have been clamoring for Loperfido to join the big club since his hot Grapefruit League performance.
But the bigger issue for me is not that Loperfido is coming up, but who is going down instead? The identity of the person being jettisoned to make room for Loperfido on the active roster will help determine what role the front office wants Loperfido to fill. It could be as a regular, a platoon player, or a bench bat.
Loperfido The Player
The Astros drafted Loperfido in the 7th round of the 2021 draft after he broke out in his senior season at Duke. He broke out again in 2023 at Corpus Christi, slashing .296/.392/.548 in 365 at bats there, but he was stymied when promoted to AAA. Loperfido apparently got better this offseason, because no pitching has stymied him this year. He has a 1.076 OPS in 41 Spring Training plate appearances, and has a 1.060 OPS for the Space Cowboys this season, including 13 homers.
Loperfido pairs a high strikeout rate (30.8% in AAA) with a high walk rate (12.0% this year). He’s waiting for a pitch to drive. The concern with such a high strikeout rate is the inability to make contact. But as the chart below from Chris Clegg of the Dynasty Dugout Substack shows Loperfido’s contact rate has remained steady and at average levels this season. Loperfido seems to willing to wait for a pitch he can drive, eschewing pitches on the corner for ones in the middle of the plate. There are plusses to this strategy—his 13 homers leads minor league baseball—and minuses—see his strikeout rate.
Loperfido is a left handed hitter and that is useful on a team that is so right handed at the bottom of its lineup (c.f. Jake Meyers, Mauricio Dubon, & Chas McCormick). Loperfido also brings positional versatility. In the minors, he has played second base and all three outfield positions. He has also played 58 minor league games at first base. There was talk that he’d focus on first base at AAA this year, but he’s started only 7 games there this year as compared to 17 in the outfield.
Loperfido has been groomed to be a utility player. He was drafted in a round where the goal is to find a contributor, not a star. And the player development team has never rooted him in a single position. Yet there is reason to believe that between Loperfido’s breakout and a glaring need for the Astros, Loperfido might become a regular in Houston.
Will Loperfido be a bench bat, a platoon player, or a regular? The answer to that might be provided by who is sent down to make space for Loperfido.
Who Will Be Sent Down?
Jose Abreu. This would be the biggest move. It would require Jim Crane to swallow the $37 million he still owes Abreu, but it would open up first base. This move would be based on the front office’s evaluation that Abreu is done as an effective major leaguer, but would also be based on an evaluation that Loperfido is himself an effective major leaguer. This move would make Loperfido a regular, and we could expect him in the lineup at first base just about every day.
Jon Singleton. At one level, this would a move for a player who plays one position for a more flexible player. Singleton has not shown the ability to be a major league hitter, though he’s not getting consistent at bats. This move might also signal that the team plans to platoon Loperfido with Abreu at first base. The front office might see this as the best way to get something out of Abreu if they have to have him on the roster.
Jake Meyers. Despite Dana Brown saying this off-season that Meyers would be given “a chance to play every day,” Joe Espada has put Meyers name in the lineup only 4 times in the last 10 games. That’s less than the 13 starts Meyers had in the first 19 games, and may indicate that the organization has soured on Meyers’ skills in Spring Training and the early season. This move would put Loperfido into a rotation among Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubon, and (with position shifts) Victor Caratini. It would give Loperfido an opportunity to earn more playing time, but he would not get it from the start.
Grae Kessinger. Kessinger has made only one start this season and has only 10 plate appearances. Sending Kessinger down would bring Loperfido up as a bench player, trying to find playing time. When he gets it Loperfido would try to take playing time for Meyers and Dubon for the most part.
What can we expect from Loperfido? The answer to this is unclear until we figure out who he is replacing on the roster. That will provide an important clue about what role he will play on the Astros. But until we know who’s going out to let Loperfido come aboard, we can’t know what that role will be.