It's Getting Late Early for the Astros in 2024
Even if the Astros play like they did in 2023 or 2021 when the won the AL West, they're unlikely to make the playoffs. They need to play as well as the best seasons in franchise history.
It’s one of Yogi Berra’s most famous aphorisms—it’s gets late early out there. And while Yogi was referring to how the shadows creeped into Yankee Stadium left field in October games, it could well apply to April 2024 for the team he once served as bench coach.
The Astros have begun the season at 7-19. After dropping yesterday’s game in Wrigley Field, the Astros have now lost 5 games in a row. That tops the 4 game losing streak the team started the season with and the 4 game losing streak suffered against the Royals and Rangers two weeks ago and the three game losing streak when the Braves swept the Astros.
I mean, if you are referring to four different multi-game losing streaks when your team has only played 26 games, it’s not going well. In fact, 7-19 is the Astros worst start since 1969.
The good news is that we all know that that the Astros are a better team than what we have seen so far. At some level, every team is better than a .269 winning percentage (they’re on a 44 win pace).
But beyond that, this is a team that has reached 7 straight ALCSs. It has a core of players who were projected as favorites in the AL West at the start of the season.
And some of the issues with this team will solve themselves over the long run. The team’s three leverage relievers—Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly, and Bryan Abreu—will over time pitch closer to their abilities than their current ERA. The starting pitching will get healthier—Justin Verlander has already returned and Framber Valdez is scheduled to be activated and start tomorrow’s game in Mexico City.
There is a lot of bad play for the Astros this season, but there has also been a good bit of bad luck. For example, the team is 0-7 in one-run games. One-run games are essentially coin flips and thus, losing 7 one-run games seems a statistical impossibility.
Over the long run, the team will rise up from its horrific start. It can’t be this bad all season.
Often numbers and analytics serve as a useful and important way to counteract the immediate emotions we feel about any singe baseball game or stretch of baseball games.
The baseline assumptions behind mathematical thoughts about baseball is that players and teams will—over the long run—return to their level of ability.
But because of the big hole the Astros have dug in the first 26 games of the season, they do not have the comfort of relying on the long run. They need to start winning now. Or in other words, it’s as bad as your emotions feel.
Last season, the Astros won the American League West with 90 wins. That’s a .556 winning percentage. If the Astros play the rest of the season at a .556 winning percentage, as they did in 2024, they’ll go 76-60 the rest of the season and finish with 83 wins. It’s possible to win a berth in the 12-team playoffs with 83 wins, but it’s unlikely. Last season, 83 wins would put a team one game behind the Marlins and Diamondbacks, who claimed the last 2 spots in the playoffs.
It’s getting late early out here.
So the Astros need to play better over the rest of the season than they did in 2023 to make the 2024 playoffs. How about they play like they did in 2021 when they won 95 games, the division by 5 games, and a bye into the Division Series as the AL’s second seed?
In 2021, their wining percentage was .586. If they play .586 ball for the rest of 2024, they’ll finish 80-56. That will be good for 87 wins. And while that would have outpaced the 2023 Diamondback and Marlins, it would not have gotten the Astros a bid into the American League playoffs. They would have finished two games behind the Blue Jays, the final AL playoff team at 89 wins.
To get to the playoffs, the Astros need to play like their 2022 team, which won 106 games. That’s a .654 winning percentage. If they play .654 ball the rest of 2024, they’ll finish 89-47, and win 96 games on the season.
This is how big a hole the Astros have dug themselves by starting the season 7-19. It’s possible for them to make up the ground they have lost already, but to do that, they will need to play as well as they did in some of the best seasons in franchise history. If they play merely at their division winning pace of 2021 and 2023, they will likely miss the 2024 playoffs.
It’s getting late early.
In many ways, this season so far is the mirror image of 2015 season. That year, the Astros started hot and won 14 of 15 games in an early season stretch to put their record at 18-7.
And all the Astros had to do the rest of that season was to go .500 to make the playoffs. They finished that season with 68 wins and 69 losses. That was nice enough to get the Astros a bid to the Wild Card Game where Dallas Keuchel earned the eternal enmity of Yankees fans by throwing 6 shoutout innings and the Astros reached the “real playoffs.”
The terrible start has put the Astros in the opposite position here in 2024. They need to play better than .500 to get themselves in playoff position. It’s a doable goal, but it requires them to win a bunch of games and to win now.
It’s getting late early. The Astros need to turn things around quickly.
Worst start since '69? How well I remember.....I was 14, and couldn't believe that other team, born the same year as the 'Stros' franchise, won the World Series! I sense this will be one of those years (the franchise knows so well) where we look to see who we can jettison to move up in several draft rounds! And, the trade deadline will focus on minor leaguers who might be able to contribute in 5 years!