A Small Ball Rally—and Stopping the Twins from Doing the Same—Made The Difference in Game 1
Both teams scored 4 runs on homers. But timely hitting & smart baserunning made the difference. Well that, and Justin Verlander keeping the Twins from doing the same.
I’m usually a big proponent of the adage “Ball Go Far. Team Go Far.” This presumes that the way to score in modern baseball is to hit home runs. It’s the single best thing you can do on any play and homering allows you to score on the fewest number of swings. According to Sarah Langs of MLB, teams that outhomer their opponent are 8-0 in this season’s playoffs. They were 22-6 last October. test—test
But “ball go far, team go far” does not work to explain the result of Game 1 of the American League Division Series. The Astros scored 4 runs on 3 home runs—two by Yordan Alvarez and one by Jose Altuve. The Twins matched that by scoring 4 runs on two homers—back-to-back shots from Jorge Polanco and Royce Lewis in the seventh inning.
Instead of being decided by the game’s big flies, it instead was decided on a small ball rally. The Astros scored a pair of runs in the fifth inning without the aid of a home run, or even an extra base hit. They got their first two batters on base via a walk to Alex Bregman and a single by Yordan Alvarez. And they were able to cash in both of those runners on a single and good baserunning both times.
Bregman scored on a fly ball single by Jose Abreu. Bregman got a great read on the ball and was standing close to third base when the ball landed just inside the left field foul line. That allowed Bregman to score easily.
Alvarez scored two batters later on a single to left center by Chas McCormick. The good baserunning was provided by Abreu whose attempt to take third base attracted a cutoff throw from Twins first baseman Alex Kirilloff. The Twins had a play on Alvarez at home if the ball was not cut off and thrown to third.
You don’t have to believe me. You can believe Twins catcher Ryan Jeffers, who put his hands on his head in disbelief when Kirilloff cut off the ball.
The Astros were able to cash in on their opportunity when they got runners on early in an inning.
The Twins Couldn’t Take Advantage of a Wobbly Verlander
And it is notable that the Twins didn’t, despite more opportunities
In the first inning, the Twins had runners on first and second with nobody out. In the second, they got runners to first and second with one out. In the third, they got the leadoff runner to second on a double.
Yet none scored. And the reason was that Justin Verlander was able to right himself in those early innings. All those baserunners should tell you that Verlander did not have his best stuff in the early going. He lacked command on his breaking stuff and was behind in the count to most every batter the first time through the order. Verlander did not trust his fastball after Eduoard Julien took one off the left-center field wall for that double in the third
But he never wavered, figuring out how to get enough pitches across the plate to get soft contact from the usually hard hitting Twins. He induced a pair of 6-4-3 double plays. In the first, it was Royce Lewis, the Twins #3 hitter, who bounced a ball to Jeremy Pena. In the second, it was Michael A. Taylor whose grounder led to a pair of outs.
In the third, it was the Twins baserunning that let them down. Julien was at second when Royce Lewis hit a grounder to third. Julien ran toward third, and Alex Bregman chased him down to retire him and take a runner out of scoring position.
After that, Justin Verlander was able to find the command of his pitches. Over the next 3.1 innings, Verlander allowed only two baserunners on a hit batter and a walk, while striking out four.
After 2.2 innings of struggling on the mound, Verlander had found “it” and looked smooth for the rest of his time on the bump. As JJ Cooper of Baseball America noted in this tweet from yesterday, it was “an example of how Justin Verlander’s an ace…he just finds a way.”
But it was the struggling time that was key. Verlander was able to keep the Twins from doing any damage. When the Astros had a similar opportunity to cash in on runners on base, they were able to do so.
The home runs were the big things, but those evened out. The game was decided on small things. The Astros were able to take advantage of their opportunity in the 5th inning thanks to timely hits and smart baserunning. The Twins were not able to find those timely hits and made a dumb play on the basepath. Or, to put it another way. Justin Verlander held the line.