Has the Prospect Pipeline Dried Up?
No young Astro in 2025 looked like an emerging star. This raises big questions about the medium-term future of the Astros.
In 2017, the Astros won a World Series primarily because they had developed a young core. Star players like George Springer, Carlos Correa, Dallas Keuchel, and Marwin Gonzalez made big contributions not only to the 101 regular season wins, but also to during that season’s postseason.
The Astros remained a juggernaut and once again won the World Series in 2022. And while the stars listed in the previous paragraph had all departed Houston as free agents, they were replaced by a new core of star players such as Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, and Jeremy Pena. That new core made big contributions to not only the 106 regular season wins, but also during that season’s postseason.
The Astros extended their championship window from 2017 through 2024 primarily through the franchise’s ability to replace departing stars with a new set of young stars, developed from the team’s own farm system.
Looking at the 2025 Astros, one has to wonder whether that pipeline may have finally dried up. Not only did the 2025 team received relative few contributions from young players, those that did play were not very productive at the plate or in the mound. None had a season in 2025 that makes them look like a future star.
The Meager 2025 Contributions of Young Astros
In 2025, the Astros received 783 plate appearances from batters who were age 25 or younger at midseason. That’s not a lot. In fact, it is the 5th lowest of any major league team.
The average baseball player peaks around the age of 27 (c.f. Jeremy Pena, who had his peak season this year at the age of, you guessed it, 27). The advantage of young players is that the are likely to improve as they move up in age toward their peak (like Pena, who had a .708 OPS in his first three seasons in the majors before his breakout 2025, when his OPS was .840).
The quantity of young players is a good sign for future improvement. And the Astros lack quantity. They also lack quality. The table below shows the numbers this season for the 6 Astros 25 and under who batted this season.
These are not great numbers. Only Cam Smith had more than 110 plate appearances and only Zach Cole had an above average offensive performance. It is not an encouraging set of statistics. for the future.
The quantity of young Astros pitchers is even smaller. Only 2 Astros toed the rubber in 2025 born in the Twenty-First Century—AJ Blubaugh and Spencer Arrighetti.
Arrighetti pitched poorly when he pitched at all. He was felled early in the season by an broken finger and late by elbow soreness, pitching only 35.1 innings across 7 starts. AJ Blubaugh had better numbers (though he pitched in some good luck, giving up 6 homers but only 6 earned runs).
Compare this to recent seasons. In 2022, Jeremy Pena showed outstanding defensive abilities and enough hitting skill to project a potential breakout later in the season. In 2020, Kyle Tucker finally established himself as a regular after two false start seasons, leading to receiving MVP votes in each of the next three seasons. In 2019, Yordan Alvarez immediately established himself as one of the top handful of hitters in baseball, where he has remained ever since.
Again, the Astros were able to extend their championship window over an eight season period through the emergence and development of these star players. They produce more value on the field and because of the salary structure of major league baseball, they do so for reduced prices.
Looking at the prospects for the young Astros in 2025, it’s unclear that there is a future star among them.
This Year’s Young Astros
The young Astros in 2025 seem to feature more limitations than they do potential.
Cam Smith is the most likely player to defeat my pessimism. Smith began the season as the everyday right fielder and immediately showed excellent range at a position he had barely played before. He had solid numbers at the plate in May and June, indicating he was beating expectations. Then he hit the proverbial wall. From July 1 on, Smith slashed XXX. He lost playing time as the Astros cycled through other corner outfield options, leaving open the question of whether he will have the Opening Day job next season like he did this year.
Zach Cole was one of the new corner outfield options. He debuted in September after a breakout season at the plate in the minors and kept hitting, slugging 4 home runs in just major league games and starting in the team’s most pivotal games in their ultimately unsuccessful push for a playoff berth. But Cole struck out in 38.5% of his major league plate appearances, which was not surprising, as he struck out in 35.1% of his minor league plate appearances in 2025. His high strike out rate and advanced age (he turned 25 in August) make me think Cole’s future is as a fourth outfielder or platoon bat.
One potential platoon partner for Cole is Zach Dezenzo. Dezenzo was 2024’s popup prospect. But his 2025 season was below average at the plate and marred by a hand injury that kept him on the injured list for the season’s final 4 months.
My biggest hope for development in 2025 was that Spencer Arrighetti would take a leap. Arrighetti showed a high strikeout rate in the rotation in2024, but also a propensity to give up loud contact. Arrighetti’s 2025 season was essentially stillborn thanks to an early season broken finger and a late season elbow injury. But when he pitched, he showed little change from the 2024 season.
Brice Matthews showed power when he could make contact, but did not make enough contact to stick in the majors. Jacob Melton also did not make enough contact, but showed no power when he did hit the ball.
The most effective young Astros in 2025 was AJ Blubaugh, who had a 1.69 ERA in 32 innings as a swing man, but whose underlying numbers indicate he was pitching in good luck (he gave up 6 homers…and only 6 earned runs). Blubaugh could be a rotation option in 2026 though the team seems to prefer him in the bullpen.
That is seven different young Astros, and none performed in 2025 in a way that will secure them an everyday role in 2026. It is likely that one of these hitters will be in the Opening Day lineup in the corner outfield, but it is unclear whether that will be Smith, Cole, Dezenzo, or Matthews (assuming he pushes Altuve back to left field).
No young Astro established themself as a future star in 2025. Each player I listed will need to exceed expectations next season to do that.
The Case for Optimism
It is of course possible for one of these young Astros who played poorly this season to exceed expectations in 2026.
We Astro fans have seen this in the recent past. It is the development path of one of the team’s current stars—Hunter Brown. Brown did not follow the pattern of steady emergence and growth we saw from players such as Pena, Tucker, and Alvarez. Brown debuted in 2022 and looked promising, striking out 22 while allowing only 22 baserunners in 20 late season innings. He made the postseason roster that year.
In 2023, Brown earned a role in the starting rotation, but was not an effective pitcher. He had his strikeout stuff, with 178 punchouts in 155.1 innings. But Brown was hit hard, giving up 26 home runs and a .456 slugging percentage. It lead to a 5.09 ERA and barely above replacement level production—0.1 bWAR.
Brown improved greatly in 2024, thanks to the development of a new sinker that kept hitters off the outside part of the plate, reducing their slugging when they made contact. Brown was good in 2024 (3.49 ERA overall after a rough April) and was a star this season. He’ll get Cy Young votes.
The optimistic case for the Astros is that Smith’s issues in 2025 were caused by hitting the rookie wall from playing more baseball than he ever had before. Or that Cole is a late bloomer. Or that Arrighetti’s development restarts after a lost season. Or that Blubaugh is able to hold a steady major league job and pitches at a high level.
The realistic case though is that the flaws I have mentioned for each of the Astros young players are too much to overcome and each only offers modest production to the Astros in 2026. That is also a worrisome scenario, because modern baseball teams—and the Astros in particular—are built on young stars. They need to be in the optimistic scenario. I worry they will not be.