Evaluations of Injuries Are More Important than Evaluations Of Players and Prospects at This Trade Deadline
With so many injuries and so many players currently on rehab assignments, Dana Brown's job in evaluating the Astros deadline needs are more complicated this season.
The Astros approach the trade deadline on Thursday in their worst stretch of the season. With their 2-1 loss to the Nationals on Monday night, they have now lost 12 of their last 17 games and their last 5 straight.
There are multiple reasons for such a losing stretch, but at base, the reason is simple. The Astros are fielding half of a major league team.
Over the last month, the team has had to place three key starters on the IL. That’s shortstop Jeremy Pena (placed on the IL on June 30); Jake Meyers (placed on the IL on July 11); and Isaac Paredes (placed on the IL on July 20). They join designated hitter Yordan Alvarez, who has been out since May 2 with a mysterious hand injury.
It’s not surprising that a team is having difficulty when half of its everyday core is unavailable. The Astros have also suffered because their depth has been on the IL as well. Injuries to Brendan Rodgers, Zack Dezenzo, Pedro Leon, and Jacob Melton (activated yesterday) have thinned out the Astros depth and forced them to rely on players such as Cooper Hummel and Zach Short in the starting lineup.
Of course, the Astros injury issues are not limited to their position players. Two members of their Opening Day rotation—Ronel Blanco and Hayden Wesneski—injured their elbows early in the season and have already had season ending surgery. Spencer Arrighetti has been out since early April with a broken finger.
The good news is that the bullpen has held up relatively well, with only Shawn Dubin currently on the IL. And that is really good news, as the bullpen has been the strength of the team with five different active relievers with an ERA below 3.00.
Who’s Coming Back?
The key challenge for Dana Brown and the rest of the front office right now is to sort through all of their injuries to evaluate out which of the team’s needs are temporary and which ones are long lasting.
For example, the Astros announced yesterday that Jeremy Pena will begin a rehab assignment in Sugar Land tomorrow. That means he’s likely to return to the Astros leadoff spot within a week. Leadoff is not a long-term need for this team.
On the other hand, the injury to Isaac Paredes looked really bad when it happened and continues to look bad. Paredes is currently seeking a second opinion on his hamstring, which means he did not like the first opinion. It is likely he is out until well into September and it quite possible that he will not return this season. Thus, third base is potentially a long-term need for this team.
We see something different on the pitching side. The Astros have four of their starting pitchers—Arrighetti, Cristian Javier, Luis Garcia, and JP France—currently on rehab assignments and projected to join the big league roster in the next few weeks.
This is obviously encouraging news for a team that has pieced together the back end of its starting rotation this season with Quad-A players such as Colton Gordon, Ryan Gusto, and Brandon Walter.
But it’s quite hard to write any of these pitchers into the starting rotation in August, much less in October. Javier & Garcia have not pitched since early 2024, and Arrighetti and France were fifth starter options before their injuries.
What will the Astros get from these four pitchers? Again, this will be an essential part of the evaluation that Dana Brown and the front office has to make in determining what to do that the trade deadline. A rotation where the better version of Javier and Garcia join Framber Valdez and Hunter Brown is formidable down the stretch. But that will only be the case if those pitchers are healthy and in peak form. We don’t know what we will get from them.
Dana Brown’s Priorities
All of these evaluations of the Astros injuries and how players will return from them lead to a question of how Dana Brown and front office will prioritize its needs at the deadline.
In his public statements, Brown has tended to put the focus on the offense. On Thursday, he said “I’m really locked in on the bat” and that “the priority is getting some more offense…particularly a left-handed bat.”
Brown tends to be less close to the vest than his two most recent predecessors as Astros GM, so that may well reflect his prioritization. Or it may be his way of publicly posturing while privately prioritizing starting pitching.
And of course, what he prioritizes in press conferences in a Daiken Park dugout and what he prioritizes has he actually talks to other general managers are not necessarily the same thing.
Assuming we can take Brown at his word, that may mean the front office has made the evaluation that it thinks Javier and Garcia and potentially Arrighetti and France will be healthy options and potentially better ones than he can acquire on the trade market.
It also could mean that he and the front office do not think that Paredes will be back this season, or that Jake Meyers will continue to be out for a while or that Yordan Alvarez will be limited when he returns.
Left-Handed Hitter Options
That is one interpretation.
Another is that what the Astros really need—regardless of their injury situation—is another bat, especially a left-handed one. The Astros Opening Day lineup had Brendan Rodgers at second base with Mauricio Dubon filling in frequently. Neither is a strong hitter, so at full strength, the Astros are shy a bat. Further, this offsesason, the Astros traded out one of their best left-handed hitters in Kyle Tucker and replaced him with two right-handed hitters in Paredes and Cam Smith. They also signed Christian Walker, another righty bat.
That left the Astros very right-handed in their lineup, and that was only exacerbated when Alvarez, a lefty slugger, went on the IL.
In short, at full strength, this team’s biggest need is a bat, and if possible, a left-handed one. Chandler Rome has linked the Astros to Willie Castro, a switch-hitting utility man from the Twins who could fill in anywhere while injuries dominate the team, and then settle in at second base or third base. Ryan O’Hearn is having a career year for Baltimore and he can play left field while Jose Altuve is pushed back to second base. Cedric Mullins is an excellent defensive center fielder who could fill in for Meyers and then move to left field later in the season.
Each seems a potential trade candidate. Each is also a free agent at the end of the season, so the Astros have the prospect capital to acquire each one.
A riskier option for a left-handed bat is Brandon Lowe of the Rays. At peak, he’s the best of these players, but he’s rarely at peak because of injuries. And he’s even injured right now, on the IL with ankle tendinitis. He is supposed to be activated Wednesday. So you see the riskiness. But Lowe is a left-handed hitter who plays second base. He’s slashing .269/.320/.480 this season with 19 homers. And he’s under a team option for the 2026 season, so he’d be a multi-year solution to the hole at second base.
If Brown is being straight-forward in his public comments, then one of these four players will likely be in an Astros uniform on Friday.
Starting Pitching Options
The other potential area for the Astros to make a move would be for a starting pitcher. Brown has talked about his less publicly, but with so much of the starting rotation on the IL or made up of Quad-A fodder, the need is there, even in a world where Javier and Garcia return quickly and successfully to the rotation.
Options for starting pitchers tend to center on teams that have disappointed this season—the Diamondbacks and the Orioles. Each has a pair of starting pitchers who are free agents after the season and should be moved. This list is Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen of the Diamondbacks and Zack Eflin and Charlie Morton of the Orioles.
While there may be some starters with multiple years before free agency who move at the deadline (e.g. Edward Cabrera, Mitch Keller), I do not expect the Astros to be players for any of them. Instead, it will likely be somebody right before free agency. Adrian Houser of the White Sox and Tyler Anderson of the Angels are other candidates.
Part of the evaluation for Dana Brown in determining what starting pitcher to acquire is who might benefit from the Astros excellent pitching development program, led by pitching coaches Josh Miller and Bill Murphy. That worked very well for Yusei Kikuchi, who changed his pitch mix and where he aimed his slider after being traded to the Astros last season, and these changes have helped him after he signed with the Angels this offseason.
One solution to the priorities question is both. I made this case earlier in the week. The Astros have multiple needs and they should address more than one of them at this trade deadline. It will cost Jim Crane money in luxury tax, but the tax amount is relatively light. And in a weak AL, this is likely the team’s best chance to get to the World Series over the next several season.
Regardless of what they prioritize, I fully expect the Astros to make a trade addition over the next three days. And based on how the team is playing right now, it can’t come a minute too soon.