David Hensley Has Walked His Way to the Utility Infield Job in 2023
Hensley has always had excellent plate discipline, but he leveled up that skill last season. That, and his defensive versatility, means that he's earned a spot on the bench this season.
The first pitch was a slider that was aimed for the outside corner at the knees, but David Hensley let it go, and it tailed far away from the plate.
Pitch 2. A fastball on the outside corner, taken for a strike.
Pitch 3. A fastball that moved far to the outside. Hensley took it.
Pitch 4. A fastball down the middle, and Hensley swing and missed.
Pitch 5. A fastball inside and low. Hensley fouled it off.
Pitch 6. A fastball missed inside. Hensley took, and it was 3-2.
Pitch 7. A fastball on the inside corner. Hensley fouled it off.
Pitch 8. A fastball tailed inside and Hensley took it. And it hit Hensley.
This plate appearance from David Hensley occurred in Game 1 of the ALDS against the Mariners ace reliever Paul Sewald. Sewald had struck out nearly 30% of the batters he faced last season, but not Hensley, who waited him out and got his way to first base.
Hensley’s plate appearance was important for two reasons. One, it was the first Astros baserunner in the bottom of the 9th on that Tuesday afternoon back in October. If Hensley made an out, Yordan Alvarez would not have come to the plate three batters later and he would not have hit that ridiculously memorable home run.
And second, it showed that David Hensley’s plate discipline would hold up in the most pressure packed of situations.
The Astros front office has apparently taken notice. On Saturday, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reported that “According to multiple people with knowledge of the situation, the Astros would rather give utility at-bats to David Hensley” than sign Yuli Gurriel.
I strongly believe this is the right decision.
Hensley Has Walked His Way to the Majors
Hensley was drafted in the 26th round of the 2018 draft. To give you an idea of how long a shot it is to even make the majors from the 26th round, MLB limited the draft to 20 rounds in the Collective Bargaining Agreement signed last March.
But Hensley started showing his outstanding plate discipline immediately, walking in 13.2% of his plate appearances at Low-A Quad Cities in 2018. In 2019, he regressed some, walking 9.3% of the time in a year split between Quad Cities and High-A Fayetteville. After the 2020 season was cancelled due to the pandemic, Hensley spent 2021 at AA Corpus Christi where he improved his walk rate to 11.6%. And then in 2022, Hensley had a monster year at Sugar Land, walking in 21.1% of his plate appearances.
His walk rate boosted Hensley to a .420 OBP in AAA, which combined with increased power that lifted him to 10 home runs, earned him a call up to Minute Maid Park in late August. Hensley continued to show outstanding plate discipline with the big club; he had a 17.2% walk rate in 34 big league plate appearances. Regular season plate appearances that is. It does not include his awesome plate appearance against Sewald in the ALDS.
Hensley talked about the adjustments he had made in 2022 that allowed him to boost his walk rate in an interview with Jimmy Price of Astros Future:
I think the walks have come from a good understanding of what I’m trying to do as a hitter and understanding what the pitcher is trying to do to get me out. Seeing the ball up in the zone has given me an advantage of laying off the soft stuff down, which is something I struggled with previously.
Hensley in 2023
What can we expect from Hensley in 2023? Looking at his projections, his potential for 2023 depends on his plate discipline.
The Steamer system gives Hensley a promising projections, with a projected wRC+ of 101. wRC+ stands for weighted Runs Created Plus and the plus tells you that the measure is scaled so that 100 is league average and each digit above 100 is a percentage above league average. So Steamer is projecting Hensley to be a league average hitter…which is good for a utility infielder.1
The Bat X projection system is much more pessimistic about Hensley, anticipating a 81 wRC+, well below league average. What is the difference between the two? Much of it comes from Hensley’s projected walk rate. The Bat X says it will be 8.6%. That’s better than league average (which was 8.2% in 2022) but not outstanding. Steamer projects Hensley to walk in 10.7% of his plate appearances in 2023. That would have been one of the 75 best walk rates among all major leaguers in 2022 who had more than 200 plate appearances.
So the key to Hensley’s ability to be a major league player is his plate discipline. If his increased walk rate from 2022—at both the AAA and major league level—reflects a clear improvement in his skills, then he will be an effective major league player and an asset to a good team like the Astros.
The Forgotten Man
From my standpoint, I think David Hensley has earned one of the utility infielder jobs for the Astros in the 2023 season. His excellent plate discipline shows he can replace the offensive output of Aledmys Diaz.
Like Diaz, Hensley can also play all four infield positions. Hensley has played more than 500 innings at all four infield positions as a minor leaguer. Hensley’s defense is not his calling card (especially at shortstop), he is competent at the other positions. A scouting report from Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs noted Hensley’s “ability to throw from all kinds of funky platforms, and his internal clock and instincts are quite good.”
Yet, Astros fans seem to have taken little notice of Hensley’s skills and potential as the team’s utility infielder in 2023. In an article at the Crawfish Boxes advocating for the team to re-sign Yuli Gurriel to be the utility infielder, Juan Paez wrote that the teams was “without a clear utility man for the infield.”
Alec Brown of Climbing Tal’s Hill wrote about news that the Astros had settled with Mauricio Dubon on a contract that avoided an arbitration hearing and advocated for the team to acquire a better utility infielder. “The Astros were spoiled by Marwin Gonzalez. It's easy to forget in light of his playoff struggles, but Aledmys Diaz also was a great bat in the utility spot. An above-average hitting utility player doesn't grow on trees.”
No they do not grow on trees. Instead, they can be identified in a trade, as Jeff Luhnow did after the 2018 season ended when he traded Trent Thornton for Aledmys Diaz. They can also slowly developed at the major league level, as Gonzalez was. Or they can be brought up by the player development machine in your own player development system.
For comparison, Aledmys Diaz recorded wRC+ numbers of 94, 97 and 96 in his last three seasons with the Astros.