Dana Brown's Momentous Decision; Jim Crane's Continued Influence, and Cam Smith's Pivotal Role. The State of the Astros Organization, Opening Day 2025.
Over the course of Jim Crane’s tenure as owner of the Astros—the team’s “Golden Age”—there have only been a handful of decisions that one could describe as “momentous.” That is, decisions which changed the course of the franchise and drove it to 2 World Series titles, 4 pennants, and 9 playoff appearances over the last 10 seasons.
They are:
· Hiring Jeff Luhnow as general manager and thus fully embracing cutting edge analytical decision making.
· Trading for Justin Verlander, fully committing resources to winning a World Series
· Booting James Click as general manager (for reasons) and replacing him with Dana Brown, shifting the front office to consider more traditional scouting principles.
This offseason, the Astros made the fourth momentous decision of Crane’s tenure by trading Kyle Tucker.
There are several reasons why the Tucker trade changes the course of the franchise. The first is that it is the Astros first trade in over a decade designed to reduce the team’s chances of winning the World Series in that season.
From the trade for Scott Kazmir at the trade deadline in 2015 through the Yusei Kikuchi trade in July 2024, the Astros front office made decisions primarily based on maximizing their chances of winning in October. While we saw a number of star level players leave in free agency over that period, the Astros kept all of them in the final season of their contract, thus maximizing the chances of winning that season. Jim Crane’s budget and his aversion to signing long-term contracts mattered, but in that context, the priority was to win and to win now.
The second reason the Tucker trade feels momentous is the particular direction that it signals the franchise was taking—toward the middle. In previewing this offseason, I wrote the Astros had to chose between making “moves to maximize their chances of winning in 2025” and the change to acquire “young players to help the team over the next several seasons in exchange for hobbling it some in 2025.”
When the trade was made, I noted that the Astros “decided to to be in the middle of those two options…getting just one prospect [Cam Smith] and having much of the value in the trade come from a major leaguer with medium-term value [Isaac Paredes].”
Avoiding a Rebuild
Why did the Astros choose this middle path? It is easy to see why they chose it over the long-term path of trading Tucker for prospects of extremely young players. Such a move would greatly hobble a 2025 team that is as much of a favorite for the AL West crown as any other in the division. They can win this year even with Tucker in Chicago.
But it also seems the Astros took this particular path because they want to avoid having to rebuild. They want to take a step back exchanging Tucker for Paredes, but only a modest one. And thus they can still compete in 2026 when Paredes will still be with the Astros. It would be more difficult to compete in 2026 had they kept Tucker this season and he left as a free agent.
A Closing Window?
Underlying the calculus of the Tucker trade is the sense the Golden Age for the Astros is closing, and thus an unorthodox move was needed. The Astros entered their Golden Age thanks to becoming masters of player development. Between 2014 and 2016, the Astros called up George Springer, Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, and Alex Bregman. The saw the growth of Jose Altuve into an MVP and Dallas Keuchel into a Cy Young Award Winner.
The Astros suffered free agent losses as the Golden Age continued, but were able to keep open their championship window by developing a second championship core in Tucker, Framber Valdez, Yordan Alvarez, Cristian Javier, and Jeremy Pena. The Astros contined to be masters of player development.
A look at the farm system indicates that those days might be ending. Baseball America described their hitting prospects as “a strong group of platoon hopefuls” and Keith Law of The Athletic wrote that the front office has drafted :pitchers who project as fifth starters…or middle relievers.” Those are not the words one would use to describe a replacment for Tucker and Valdez.
Almost all successful baseball teams succeed because they are develop good, young, and most-importantly, cost-controlled players to be stars. A team can help themselves by adding free agents, but then they are paying full retail for those players and most teams—including the Astros—do not have budgets that allow them to do that effectively.
The Astros have succeeded since 2015 through their skills at player development, created the core of a World Series champion once and then doing it again. Some of those members of the core were highly regarded by prospect evaluators, but some (e.g. Valdez & Javier) were surprises. The Astros need to find some more surprises among their poorly rated set of prospects to stave off decline in the upcoming seasons.
Shifting Power in the Front Office?
While it is easy to understand the choice to avoid tearing down them team and going for a full package of young prospects in the Kyle Tucker deal, it is harder to understand why the team chose not to keep Tucker and maximize their chances of winning in 2025. Trading a player a year before free agency recalls the Drayton McClane tenure as owner when the Astros made these trade more regularly.
In Jim Crane’s tenure, the front office across three different general managers chose to keep Dallas Keuchel, Gerrit Cole, George Springer, Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander and Alex Bregman through their final years before free agency in an effort to maximize their chance of winning that season.
The shift in strategy may reflect a different view held by Dana Brown than Luhnow and James Click—the two previous general managers hired by Crane.
Thus, the Tucker trade seems to have Brown’s fingerprints all over it. He seems to have made the decision that the Astros should reduce their chances of winning in 2025 in an effort to increase their chances in future years. That Brown seems to have made the key decision on this trade indicates he has increased his power inside the Astros front ottice.
Brown entered a situation as general manager with seemingly less power than his two predecessors as Crane seemed to take a more active role in baseball operations and advisers such as Reggie Jackson and Jeff Bagwell seemed to independent sources of power within decision making based on Crane’s desires. But Brown seems to have increased his power, certainly over Jackson, who left his role as special adviser in November and over Bagwell, who retains his job in the front office if not his influence.
But it is not clear tat Brown still have more on big baseball decisions than does Crane. Owner are of course never too far away from baseball decisions. And there are many reasons to think that the choice to avoid a rebuild and pursue a middle path may have been Crane’s decision and not Brown’s.
Jim Crane has famously said “while I’m here the window will never close.” And while most interpreted that statement as meaning he would always spend enough to keep the Astros competitive, the choice to take the middle path in Tucker deal raises the question of whether Crane means he will never rebuild the team, even if recommended by his general manager.
It is unclear if Crane told this to Brown, or Brown just understands that is what his boss wants, and like all of us with a boss, his job status depends on following the wishes of his boss.
Regardless, it leaves the Astros in an odd position. They are contenders in 2025 but are less likely to get to the playoffs than they would have been with Tucker in right field in Daiken Park.
Yet it is unclear the Astros will be better in 2026 ot 2027 than they are this season. They will have Isaac Paredes in those seasons and that is an improvement on what they would have gotten from Tucker. Yet, the team is likely to lose Valdez to free agency after this season and they are unlikely to find a replacement—whether internal or external—as good as Valdez. Some of the team’s key players—such as Jose Altuve and the newly signed Christian Walker—will be another year into their 30s.
The Astros trade some of their chances of winning in 2025 for a chance to be basically as good in 2026 and 2027 as they are this season. It seems a plan designed to tread water for a few seasons at a level that can produce a playoff team, but is not guaranteed to do so.
Cam Smith, the Pivot Man
I write all of this in the wake of the annoucement yesterday the Astros that Cam Smith, the one prospect acquired in the Kyle Tucker trade, would start the season as the every day right fielder.
Smith had an excellent Spring Training with an 1.129 OPS. And he was good in the minors in 2024. The hope is that he has made a rapid ascent in his abilities over the last, well, 10 months. Smith was good in college in 2024, but only second team all conference.
In writing about the Tucker trade, I noted that as the only prospect acquired in the deal, “the Astros have a lot riding on Cam Smith.” That is even more true today than it was earlier this week as he will be an everyday player on a playoff contender and will do so while learning a new position.
But even if Smith took a more normal path to the majors, he would still be a pivotal player, if not the pivotal player, for the Astros heading into the second half of the 2020s.
The team’s Golden Age was created by developing star players repeatedly. Smith is the best chance of having a future star player within the system right now. It seems hard to envision an Astros team that is better in the near future than the 2025 without Smith turning into a star.
And if Smith turns into a star, the Kyle Tucker trade takes on a different perspective. The Astros traded one year of a star player for six years of a star player. It becomes the Cam Smith trade. And they got an everyday player and some pitching depth as a bonus.
Of course, the odds of getting a star player in the future increase the more prospects you get. If Smith flops or even becomes an average regular, the Astros do not win the Tucker trade.
Cam Smith is a 22 year old who a year ago was a sophmore at Florida State. Today, he is the most pivotal man in determining the future of the Houston Astros.
I just hope he’s ready for the role that has been thrust upon him by the choice of the front office to make the momentous decisison to trade Kyle Tucker for a middle-term package.
Cam Smith is not responsible for the expectations heaped up up, but he will have to live up to them.