Chas McCormick Needs to Get Back to Handling the Fastball Well
In 2022 and 2023, Chas McCormick was one of the handful of best hitters in the majors against 4-seam fastballs. He slumped mightily against hard stuff in 2024.
For his first three seasons in the majors, Chas McCormick was a major success story for the Astros player development system. In 2021, while fans were clamoring for the Astros to sign a veteran free agent as a fourth outfielder, General Manager James Click trusted the front office’s evaluation that McCormick was ready for the majors. McCormick rewarded Click’s faith with a .766 OPS in 320 plate appearances and high quality defense in the outfield corners.
In 2022, McCormick took up the slack caused by Jake Meyers’s slow recovery from shoulder surgery. As for defense, come on, you know you want to see it again.
In 2023, McCormick broke out, producing an .842 OPS and 3.6 Wins above Replacement. He set a career high with 22 homers and even stole 19 bases while again manning all three outfield positions.
Then 2024 happened.
A rational fan would have expected McCormick to regress some after his career season in 2023. But no one expected the total collapse we saw from McCormick. He slashed .211/.271/.306 with only 11 extra base hits. Even his defense slumped, as McCormick recorded -2 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield.
Overall, McCormick was worth -0.6 bWAR. Yep, he was below replacement level in 2024.
What Went Wrong in 2024
McCormick is penciled in to the everyday job in right field for 2025, which means that despite his dreadful 2024, the front office has faith that he will bounce back in 2025. Well, it may not be faith, but instead hope that it can’t be that bad again. Well, that combined with a lack of alternatives.
So what does McCormick need to do to have the bounce back season the front office—and all Astros fans hope for. One clear answer is to return to hitting the fastball well.
The chart below shows the run value McCormick produced against 4-seam fastballs over his four year career, as measured by Statcast. In 2021, McCormick struggled against the hard stuff, but made an impressive improvement in 2022, generating 16 runs above average when opposing pitchers went “powder river” against him. In 2023, he got even better, generating 22 runs above average against “straight cheese.” In 2024, the bottom fell out. McCormick was feeble against “gas,” worth 2 runs less than league average.
To give some context on how well McCormick hit against fastball, in 2022, his 16 runs were the 11th highest of any major league hitter against any individual pitch type (minimum 100 swings). In 2023, his 22 run value on 4-seam fastballs was the 3rd best of any major league hitter. It was better than Kyle Tucker’s 16 runs of value and Yordan Alvarez’s 15 runs of value against 4-seamers.
In short, major league hurlers could not beat McCormick with fastballs in 2022 and 2023. But it was a remarkably different story with those same pitches in 2024.
The chart below shows the McCormick’s numbers against 4-seam fastballs in 2023 and in 2024. In 2024, McCormick was less likely to hit a 4-seam fastball hard and more likely to strike out against them. Due in large part to the strikeouts, 4-seam fastballs represented a larger share of the put away pitches McCormick saw. In fact, 4-seam fastballs represented a larger share of the pitches McCormick saw in general.
These numbers show that pitchers had less to fear from McCormick when he swung at a 4-seam fastball in 2024 as compared to his performance in 2023. Fearing less damage against the easiest pitch for them to control, pitchers were unsurprisingly more likely to throw 4-seam fastballs to McCormick in 2024.
As a result of all his increased share of whiffs and decreased share of hard hit balls, McCormick’s performance when he did make contact with 4-seam fastballs declined significantly. The table below shows that McCormick declined from a .349 batting average against 4-seam fastballs to .187 in 2024.
His power also declined against 4-seam fastballs, going from a .736 Slugging Percentage in 2023 to .307 in 2024. To put those numbers in further perspective, McCormick’s .736 was the 4th best slugging percentage of any major leaguer against any pitch in 2023. His 2024 slugging percentage was 998th best in the major.
At least he was in the top 1000.
A Bounce Back in 2025?
Another season like 2024 will lead to McCormick losing his place in the lineup and possibly on the roster. Yet, the lack of options for the Astros in the outfield mean that McCormick will get a long leash to get himself back to being a productive hitter.
I have highlighted in previous work this offseason that the Astros hitters swung more often, chased more pitches, whiffed more often and walked less in 2024 than they had in previous seasons. McCormick as a contributor to all of these trends for the Astros.
Of course, none of those trends are good. Part of the hope for McCormick—and the rest of the offense—is that he makes better swing decisions in 2025, chasing fewer pitches and whiffing less often.
The good news is that projections expect McCormick to return to about a league average hitter. That would be worse than we we saw in 2021 to 2023, but miles better than what McCormick produced in 2024.
McCormick’s overall strikeout rate in 2024 stayed about the same, but his walk rate dipped to a career low 6.4%. Again, projections him to walk more in 2025, keying that better expected production.
A big part of that will be hitting the fastball again, both making more contact against it and hitting them for more power. McCormick has done that well in the past and he needs to get back to hitting the fastball well in 2025.
Thanks - I did, in fact, want to see that again!