Bad Play and Bad Luck Lead to a Bad Start
The Astros have pitched poorly, hit poorly when runners are in scoring position, and have lost every one-run game. Some of that is bad luck, and some of that is bad play. They need to turn it around.
Normally, from 12:30 to 1:45 pm Central time, I’m between teaching classes and do work in my office. And that means when the Astros have a day game, I can watch the game in my office. But yesterday, I had a meeting to attend. I got out an looked at my phone to see how the the team was doing in the first inning of yesterday’s game.
Also, that meant I had to work for several more hours and then commute home, preventing me from using my evening method of dealing the the Astros getting blown out.
The sweep in Kansas City makes the Astros 4-10 on the season already. It’s been unpleasant to watch.
Bad Play
I guess the good news is that the Astros are not last in the majors in ERA in 2024. That’s the Rockies.
But the Astros 5.09 ERA is the 2nd worst, tied with the Angels. The Rockies and Angels are not the company you want to keep in the majors in 2024.
Astros pitchers have the 3rd lowest K/9 in the majors at 7.4 and the 3rd worst BB/9 s at 4.6. The inability to strike out batters is bad and the ability to walk them is worse. The combination has been deadly to the Astros hopes.
The Astros pitching woes in the opening homestand were generated by the bullpen, which was credited with every loss. On the road, the bullpen has seemed to right itself, just in time for the starting pitching to take a tumble.
Much of that has has to do with the Astros need to call up their depth options as starting pitchers in recent days to deal with the injury to Framber Valdez. The Astros started pitchers making their MLB debuts on Monday (Blair Henley) and on Wednesday (Spender Arrighetti). Then Hunter Brown couldn’t get out of the first inning yesterday. Combined, those three starters had an ERA of 47.25 over their three starts. No. Not 4.72. 47.25. I checked multiple times.
The Astros have employed 19 pitchers in their first 14 games. Eight have a negative bWAR, while only 6 have a positive bWAR. As a result, the team’s overall wins above replacement from its pitchers is -0.2.
The hitting has been better (more on that below), with the notable exception of Jose Abreu. In 41 plate appearances this season, Abreu has 3 singles, 1 walk, 2 hits by pitches, and 13 strikeouts. That totals up to a -31 OPS+—yes, you can have negative numbers in this metric. Overall, he’s at -0.9 bWAR. Yikes.
Bad Luck
What team leads the American League in batting average? It’s the Houston Astros at .266. What team leads the AL in homers? It’s also the Astros (17). The Astros are also 2nd in the AL in slugging percentage and 4th in on base percentage.
Yet, the Astros are only 7th in the American League in runs scored. They are getting hits, getting on base, and hitting for power. So why are they not scoring more often?
The chart below shows you the answer. The Astros bats have been solid when the bases are empty, excellent when a runner is at 1st base, and completely dreadful when there is a runner in scoring position.
The temptation is to say that this is because the Astros are not clutch, the reality is that this primarily a function of fortune. These numbers will even out over the course of the season. The team won’t continue to have a .531 slugging percentage with runners on first but, more importantly, they won’t continue to hit 40 points worse in batting average with runners in scoring position. That will even out over time.
The Astros also “should” be hitting better, at least according to Statcast. The Astros have a team batting average of .266, but an expected batting average of .272 (best in the majors). Their actual slugging is .421, but their expected slugging percentage is .447. Their actual weighted On Base Average is .335 but their expected wOBA is .341. These are not huge differences but do indicate that that Astros hitters are striking the ball well and making good swing decisions. It’s further evidence that the team will score a higher rate of runs in the future.
The other element of bad luck for the 2014 Astros is their record in close games. The Astros are 0-5 in one run games. That seems as impossible as a 47.25 ERA. Their record in game decided by two runs or less is slightly better—it’s 1-6.
One run games are mostly tossups. Which team wins is basically a coin flip, often decided by small factors that are often basically random. Again, this will even out over the course of the season.
Bad Record
The Astros are 4-10, and that’s not a good record. It’s a .286 winning percentage and a 46 win pace over 162 games. Their run differential is -19, which has all been accomplished in the last two days. They were at 0 before that.
As I’ve noted above, the biggest issue is the pitching staff. The team’s pitchers have gotten off to a bad start. Some of that is due to having an entire starting rotation (Verlander, Framber, McCullers, Garcia, & Urquidy) on the injured list. Those that have stayed healthy include pitchers who seem to need more minor league seasoning (Spencer Arrighetti) and one who seems to be regressing in front of our eyes (Hunter Brown).
The bullpen has for the most part straightened itself out after a rough start. But the rotation needs to do the same, and the Astros are basically stuck with a substandard rotation until players come off the IL. The good news is that Justin Verlander should do that next weekend. The bad news is well, good lord, we need him back.
There are, as I have noted here, reasons for optimism. The bats are good and have room to hit better and the team can’t do worse in one run games (right?).
And I’ll leave on the one bit of good luck the Astros have gotten in the early going of the 2024 season. No one in the division has played very well. The current AL West leaders are the Texas Rangers, who are 7-6. The standings aren’t very important this early in the season, but it’s worth noting that as big a hole as the Astros have dug emotionally, the hole in the standings is not as big. It’s 3 and a half games.
Of course, it would really help the Astros to turn it around on the mound and get their luck to go in their favor immediately. Their next opponent is the Rangers.