Awesome Pitching, Contact at the Plate, and Better Defense Propel Astros to a Game 3 Win
Astros pitching keeps striking out Yankees and keeping them off the basepaths; Astros high contact hitting led to a 6th inning rally, thanks in part to the ball finding the Yankees worst fielder.
The Astros have taken a 3-0 lead in the American League Championship Series thanks to their fabulous pitching staff. Over the three games of this series, Astro pitchers have faced 103 Yankee hitters. Only 12 times have Yankee hitters gotten a base hit, and only 5 of those have been for extra bases. Astro pitchers have allowed 9 walks, but limited the damage from that by striking out 41 Yankees. They have allowed only 2 home runs.
The pitching staff’s ALCS performance has looked a lot like its performance during the regular season. They allowed very few hits by the opposition (2nd in the majors in batting average allowed) and very little power (2nd in home runs allowed; 1st in opponent slugging average). They did walk more batters than they should (13th best in the majors), but the their ability to strike batters out (2nd in K%) and the team’s excellent defense kept the opposition from tallying runs.
In the regular season, the Astros allowed 3.20 runs per game, which is the lowest in the history of the franchise. In the American League Championship Series, the Astros have allowed only 4 runs over 3 games.
Your opponent can’t win if they can’t score.
No really, they are striking lots of Yankees out.
The Astros allowed only 3 hits to the Yankees on Saturday. In the 3 ALCS games, the Astros have held the Yankees to a slash line of .128/.212/.223 for an OPS of .435.
During the regular season, the Yankees led the American League in runs scored and had a slash line of .241/.325/.426 for an OPS of .751.
In Game 1, Justin Verlander got better as the game went on. He struck out 9 of the last 11 batters he faced, including 4 of the 6 batters he faced for the 3rd time.
In Game 2, Framber Valdez got better as the game went on. He struck out 4 of the 8 batters he faced the third time through the order.
In Game 3, Gerrit Cole did not get better as the game went on. And it made a big difference in the final outcome of the game.
Cole struck out 3 Astros the first time through the order, and 3 Astros the second time through the order. But in the third time through the order, he only struck out 1 batter.
Of the 6 Astros he faced third time through, he walked 1 and 4 made contact, with 3 of those hitting safely.
In the top of the sixth, Alex Bregman led off with a solid double, followed by a walk to Kyle Tucker. Yuli Gurriel then hit a blooper hit to load the bases.
Cole could not strike guys out and, as a result, he was vulnerable to BABIP luck. Aaron Boone removed Cole and brought in Lou Trivino from the bullpen, desperately hoping for a strikeout.
None came, and the Astros contact skills showed again. Trey Mancini hit a sacrifice fly that advanced all three runners, and then Christian Vazquez dumped a single into left center that brought in two runs.
Much has been made in the first two games of the series about the difference in the number strikeouts between Yankee and Astros hitters. After three games, the Astros have struck out only 19 times, while the Yankees, as discussed, have K’d 41 times.
But the contact difference did not lead to a difference in run scoring in Games 1 and 2, when the Astros relied on the home run ball to score.
In the 6th inning yesterday, the Astros ability to make contact, to keep even a strikeout artist like Gerrit Cole from inducing swings-and-misses, paid off on the scoreboard.
By not striking out in the 6th, the Astros increased the lead to 5-0. And the game seemed over.
These are both excellent defensive teams by the numbers. The Astros were third in the majors in defensive efficiency, only one spot (and one tenth of a point) behind the Yankees.
But Astros managed a defensive advantage on Saturday night in the Bronx thanks to their talent in the field, and some good fortune on the ball finding the Yankees weakest defender.
Jeremy Pena took away two hits from the Yankees on line outs thanks to good range against Oswaldo Cabrera in the 3rd (expected batting average: .810) and good positioning in the shift against Anthony Rizzo in the 8th (xBA: 690). And Jose Altuve’s diving stop on a Giancarlo Stanton grounder (xBA: .450) in the 9th was excellent.
The Yankees made a huge mistake in the 2nd when Aaron Judge could not hear Harrison Bader call for a fly ball off of the bat of Christian Vazquez. The distraction caused by Judge led to Bader dropping the ball. Chas McCormick homered one batter later.
But the Yankee defense was also critical to allowing runs in the sixth inning rally that put the game out of reach. That was because the ball found the Yankees weakest defender; Giancarlo Stanton in left field.
Stanton is a okay defender, but the Yankees prefer to play him at DH and when they play him in the outfield, and usually play him in right field. Stanton has only played 60 career games in left field and only 4 there this season. Stanton also hurt his Achilles tendon in July, and played very little in the field when he returned from the injury.
In the 6th inning, the ball found Stanton and he played left field like an inexperienced player nursing an injury.
With the bases loaded, Trey Mancini hit a fly ball to medium deep left center. Rather than run to the spot, get behind the ball, and fire to 3rd base, Stanton backed up on the ball and caught it with his momentum going away from the infield. Kyle Tucker, a baserunner who is more heady than speedy, read the play well and advanced to third. And then when the throw went to third base, Yuli Gurriel advanced to second.
One batter later, Christian Vazquez hit a looper into left center. Stanton played it tentatively and stopped his momentum to catch the ball off a hop, which led to a weak throw to the plate. Tucker scored easily and Gurriel slid into home just ahead of Stanton’s throw.
Why did the Yankees have Stanton in left field? Injuries to other players. The Yankees first choice left fielder Andrew Benintendi broke his hammate bone during the regular season. Second choice left fielder Aaron Hicks suffered a knee injury in Game 5 of the ALDS. Neither is on the ALCS roster for the Yankees.
With a batter defender in left field, the Astros might have only gotten 1 run in the sixth.
In his game story at Fangraphs, Jay Jaffe wrote that “Houston’s 5–0 lead might as well have been 50–0.” It sure felt that way at the time. And the 3-0 lead in the series must feel like a 30-0 lead to the Yankees right now.