A Winning Record in Every Sixth: A Final Sixth Report

Sunday was a great day to be an Astro fan. With one game left in the MLB season, four different teams were within a game of the two spots in the Wild Card game, and the possibility of some truly chaotic outcomes--including a Game 163 tiebreaker and potential three-and four-team tiebreakers--unprecedented in baseball history. 

So why was it a great day to be an Astro fan on Sunday?  Because we were already in the playoffs and could just root for chaos (and against the Yankees, like any patriotic American would do). I got to be near the other side of this scenario. My wife is a Red Sox fan and she agonized through every pitch of their come-from-behind victories on both Saturday and Sunday.  

Instead, the Astros got to celebrate fan appreciate day by cheering the fans, cheering for Carlos Correa in what is undoubtedly his last regular season game in Minute Maid Park, and watching Yuli Gurriel seal the batting title with a walk-off single in the ninth.  An excellent day at the ballpark, as long as we ignore the A's two home runs in the top of the ninth. 

Thus, the 2021 regular season ends.  The playoffs start tomorrow for the Yankees and Red Sox and on Thursday for the Astros. The gap until Game 1 of the ALDS allows me to focus today not on a playoff preview (it's coming), but on the final sixth of the season. 

Here at Breathin' Orange Fire, we analyze the baseball season in sixth--each is a 27 game segment that corresponds to, but not exactly, the sixth months of a baseball season. I use sixths because it is easier to compare equal sections of the season--all sixths are 27 games. 

As with each of the previous five sixth, the Astros once again had a winning sixth--winning 16 of the 27 games in the sixth. It is this consistency--the ability to play well in each portion of the season and to keep losing skids from getting out of hand--that explains why the Astros won the AL West this year. They are to good to go on long losing streaks. 

Overall Record:  95-67 (.586)
Record This Sixth: 16-11 (.593)
On Pace for a Record of:  95-67

It feels like the final sixth of the season was dominated by the four game losing streak last weekend in Los Angeles and Oakland.  And that is for a good reason; we all hoped that the Astros would clinch the division on that road trip, and had to keep delaying the celebration as the A's swept us and the Mariners kept winning.  But that losing streak followed a stretch of 6 wins in 7 games against the . And the Astros closed out the season winning 4 of 6 against a pair of winning teams--the Rays and A's. 

This is part of why I do these reviews. Our emotions can lead our attention to outliers, like the 4 game losing streak. Overall, it was a successful sixth. They all were. 

Team Offense & MLB Rank.  
R/G: 5.33 (1st). OBP: .339 (1st). SLG: .444 (3rd). OPS: .783 (2nd). OPS+: 113 (2nd). 

The Astros scored 863 runs this season, 6 more than the Rays did.  The claimed this crown on the last day of the season, scoring 7 while the Rays crushed our dreams of a Game 163 by getting shut out by a parade of Yankee pitchers.  Clearly, the Rays don't deserve this title. 

The Astros averaged 5.8 runs per game in the final sixth of the season. That was 3rd best in the MLB. They had slumped in the fifth sixth--scoring 4.4 runs per game. So it was a welcome sign to see the bats break out in the final portion of the season. 

The Astros returned to their place at the top of the MLB's offensive ranks. Since September 6 the Astros collectively had a batting average of .271 (5th), an on base percentage of .345 (4th), 

a slugging percentage of .483 (3rd). Their 156 runs scored was 3rd in MLB, and they posted a wOBA of .353 (3rd) and a wRC+ of 128 (also 3rd). 

In the fifth sixth report, I said that "regression to the mean suggests they will heat up in September."  That take held up. 

Team Pitching and MLB Rank
RA/G: 4.06 (6th). FIP: 4.12 (12th). WHIP: 1.23 (7th). K/9: 9.1 (13th). BB/9: 3.4 (16th) 

The pitching for the Astros this season has been good, but not great. The team's overall run production is high, but it is built as much on the team's excellent defense as it is on the quality of the pitchers themselves.  Astro pitchers are near league average when it comes to striking out batters and allowing walks. They lack dominant pitchers, but have great depth of pitchers who are better than average. 

The numbers were similar in the final sixth of the season, if below their season average. The Astros allowed 4.4 runs per game, with a FIP of 4.20. 

Team Fielding and MLB Rank

Fielding Runs Above Average 57 (4th). Defensive Runs Saved: 76 (3rd). Ultimate Zone Rating: 22.0 (5th). Outs Above Average 21 (3rd).  Errors: 71 (2nd). 

How are the Astros able to have league average levels of strikeouts and walks but above average numbers in run production?  The answer is they have an excellent defense, which does an outstanding job of converting batted balls into outs. They do it on 72.4% of the balls opponents hit between the foul lines, the third best in that majors. 

The defensive star for the Astros is shortstop Carlos Correa. The Defensive Runs Saved metric puts him at 2nd in MLB, with 20, behind only Jacob Stallings of the Pirates. Correa would be a deserving Gold Glove winner. 

Notable Player Performances

Kyle Tucker.  .344/.440/.656  .454 wOBA. 195 wRC+

Today, Tucker was named the American League's Player of the Month. It was well deserved, as Tucker was red hot in the final sixth of the season. May it continue into October

Jose Altuve .314/.379/.590.  .409 wOBA. 165 wRC+

Altuve had slumped in the fifth sixth, posting a .281 wOBA.  Needless to say, Altuve bounced back in the final sixth, ending the season hot. In my fifth sixth report, I suggested that Dusty might move Altuve out of the leadoff spot. Good news. He doesn't listen to me. 

Ryne Stanek  11 G. 10.1 IP. 1.74 ERA. 8.7 K/9  3.5 BB/9 

Kendall Graveman  10. G. 10 IP. 1.80 ERA. 9.9 K/9  6.3 BB/9

The Astros set-up men had a very effective final sixth of the season.  Yet both had more pedestrian numbers when it comes to strikeouts and walks--actually, Graveman's walk rate is quite disturbing.  We'll rely on these two for lots of important innings in the ALDS.

Their Place in the Race

The @astros are the AL West champs!!! #ForTheH pic.twitter.com/HsTczeDIxQ

— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) October 1, 2021

At the top. Where they belong.  On to the playoffs.