A Small But Potentially Meaningful Win by the Front Office

In the Rafael Montero trade, the front office got more budget room to add at the trade deadline AND a relief prospect. Good work by Dana Brown and his staff.

What’s Rafael Montero worth?

To economists, the answer is whatever the market will bear.

And in that case, the answer is $11.5 million a year. That’s what Jim Crane—acting as head of baseball operations while he was between general managers—thought in November 2022. He signed Montero to that amount through the 2025 season.

On the other hand, Montero is worth much less than that. Any team could have picked up Montero for $15.3M for the stretch run in 2024 and all of 2025 when the Astros designated Montero for assignment last July. Every other MLB team passed on the opportunity.

Which was not surprising. In 2023 and 2024 combined, Montero had a 4.94 ERA and a 4.1 BB/9 rate in 105.2 innings. He was worth -0.4 bWAR. Which is to say he was less valuable than a scrap heap signing or a player at AAA.

Montero spent the rest of the 2024 season in AAA and made the Astros out of Spring Training, though Joe Espada used him only in mop-up roles.

This week, we learned the actual answer to the question of what Rafael Montero is worth. The answer: $3 million a season and a relief prospect.

This week, the Astros traded Montero to the Braves for that package. To get there, the Astros had to pay $7.7 million of Montero’s salary. The Braves will pay him a hair under $3 million for the rest of the season.

I write this item to praise the Astros front office for making this deal.

Savings for the Trade Deadline

Montero has little value to the Astros, which is mostly showed by the fact that he was only used in low leverage situations this season. He is, at this point, indistinguishable from any fungible AAAA pitcher. Most of those are worth $760,000 a year, which is the minimum salary for a major leaguer.

That the Braves preferred Montero at 4 times that cost indicates they think they can find value out of him. The Astros don’t. And after watching Montero over the last 2 seasons, I don’t disagree.

Instead, the Astros front office would rather have some savings on their luxury tax payroll, and that could be quite valuable for the Astros later on this season.

The Montero trade saves the Astros about $3M on their luxury tax payroll. That is a big deal because the Astros began the season just $2.5 million under the luxury tax threshold of $241 million.

For Jim Crane, this fact is important because he does not want to cut into his profits by paying the luxury tax. For us Astros fans, this fact is important because we are confident that Crane has chosen not to cut into his profits and has set the budget at the tax threshold.

With their $3 million in savings from the Montero trade, the Astros now have more flexibility to add a player at the trade deadline and still stay below the budget limit set by Crane. In short, they have more options today in late July than they did last week.

That in an of itself is quite valuable in my eyes.

Rafael Montero was excellent in the 2022 regular season for the Astros. Unfortunately, he still pitched in Houston in 2023 and 2024.

A Relief Prospect

But the Astros got more than that in the deal. They also got relief prospect Patrick Halligan in the deal. Our Jules Hughan looked at Halligan yesterday and found some promise. “The splitter is the standout,” she writes. “It’s firm and falls off the table late, getting chases and weak contact, especially against lefties.”

Halligan isn’t a top prospect. His ceiling might be Seth Martinez—someone who can provide a couple of years of league average innings out of the Astros bullpen. But that’s better than what Montero gave the Astros over the last two seasons. And better than what is expected from Montero this season.

What is Rafael Montero worth? Last week, I would have thought “not much.” Thus, I think that Dana Brown and his front office did good work to get two small assets—more space to make a move at the trade deadline and a relief pitching prospect—for their own distressted asset.

This trade will not change the fate of the Astros over the long-term. But it does help on the margins. And that makes it a good deal.