A Post Free Agent Frenzy AL West Review
AL West Teams Spent over $800M for Free Agents in November, But the Spending Spree Does Little to Shift the Projected Standings for 2022
There were many expectations that the baseball off-season would produce a quick frenzy of free agent signings reminiscent of an NBA off-season. But the expectation was that these moves would happen after, not before, the owners lockout of the players.
These expectations were half right. We saw a frenzy of free agent signings that re-shaped much of baseball. But that frenzy came before the lockout. According to Travis Sawchick of TheScore.com, “MLB teams spent more on free agents ($1.7 billion) in November than they did all of last season. They had never spent a combined $1 billion in November before.”
For me, the week was best summed up the the title of the most recent episode of the Effectively Wild podcast: The Storm Before the Calm.
The AL West was one of the epicenters of the the free agent frenzy that overtook baseball in the last week. Four of the five teams made significant moves to improve their teams in the near future. Today, I’ll cover what these moves for each of the Astros division rivals, and what the moves mean for the race for the American League West crown in 2022 and beyond.
The Additions
First, let’s list who each of the AL West teams have added this month. The best resource I have found to track these moves the Off-Season Tracker from Roster Resource, which is now housed at Fangraphs.
Angels—Raisel Iglesias RP 4 years/$56 M (Re-signed). Noah Syndergaard SP 1 year/$21m. Aaron Loup RP 2 years/$17 M; Michael Lorenzen SP/RP 1 year/$6.75M
Mariners—Robbie Ray SP 5 years/$110 M; Adam Frazier (added via trade for 2 prospects).
Rangers—Corey Seager SS 10 years/$325M; Marcus Semien 7 years/$175 M; Jon Gray SP 4 years/$56 M. Kole Calhoun 1 year/5.2 M with club option for 2023.
Astros—Justin Verlander SP 1 year/$25 M with player option for 2023 (Re-signed). Hector Neris 2 year/$17 M.
Put it together, the collective American League West gave out $818 million in contracts to 11 players in the month of November. The free agent frenzy was centered in our division.
The State of the Race
While we are a long way away from the 2022 season and teams will make more moves when the lockout ends, we can start to assess how the free agents moves of November will play out next summer.
To examine this, I looked at the Depth Charts projections created and housed at Fangraphs. Depth Charts creates a projection for each player based on their past results and where they are on the aging curve. I then totaled the projected Wins Above Replacement for each team’s players. The results are in the chart below.
This set of free agent moves has done little to erode the Astros advantage int he division. They start a project 5 wins ahead of the Angels. The other teams in the AL West made more moves and signed more players, but the Astros started with the strongest and deepest base of good players. That should not surprise—the Astros won the division last year and have won it in four out of the last five year. The moves made by the Angels, Mariners, and Rangers are designed to help them catch the Astros. By this measure, they have not done so, yet.
The Mariners, Athletics, and Rangers are bunched up near third place. The A’s might fall off if they trade their star players in an effort to increase owner John Fisher’s profit margin. But at the moment, it is a division with no obvious pushover. Yet, there are 4 teams looking up at our boys.
I’ll now discuss what each of those teams have done and how it affects their goals and plans for the 2022 season and subsequent years.
Angels
The Angels are listed as second behind the Astros by the combined WAR measure I used in the chart. This might surprise some, as the Angels finished in 4th place in 2021 and have not had a winning season since 2015.
But the Angels project well because they have three star level players in Mike Trout (projected 6.1 fWAR), Anthony Rendon (4.2 fWAR) and 2021 MVP Shohei Ohtani (6.6 fWAR). Of course, the big issue for the Angels is the same as it has been for year—can they find consistent enough starting pitching to go with their superstars on offense.
The move for Syndergaard is curious from this standpoint. The Angels need to improve the floor for the pitching staff, yet the free agent they signed was one coming off of Tommy John surgery who missed the entirely of the 2020 season and who pitched 2 innings in September of 2021.
Syndergaard’s contract, as Keith Law of The Athletic notes
“creates as extreme a case of misaligned incentives as you can possibly find….There is immense pressure on this team to win, and doing so will likely require that the Angels squeeze every drop of value they can from Syndergaard...Syndergaard, however, does not have the same incentives: He wants to pitch well enough to get a multiyear contract next winter, but he also needs to maximize his odds of staying healthy through the end of the season.”
I am interested to see how this tension plays out for the Angels in 2022.
Mariners
The Mariners made a big move for their rotation in signing 2021 AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray. Ray had an up-and-down career in Arizona before a disastrous 2020. In 2021, Ray made adjustments and had a career season. Yet the Steamer projection system does not buy that he will sustain all of his gains; they have him projected for a 3.67 ERA in 2022. Projections weight past performance, so if Ray has made long-lasting improvements, he could beat that mark.
The Mariners had a clear need for a second baseman, and I am very surprised that the Mariners got outbid by the Rangers for Semien. According to Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Mariners offered a five year deal to Semien. The Mariners were able to get Adam Frazier from the Padres to play second base for them, pushing old friend Abraham Toro to third base.
The Mariners were in the playoff race until the final day in 2021, but they had the run differential of a 76 win team. These moves were made to lessen the regression that is likely to come for the Ms in 2022. But what could propel the Ms into the division chase in 2022 (and beyond) is the Mariners young prospects, both those who have arrived in Seattle like Jared Kellnic and Kyle Lewis and those still in the minors like Julio Rodriguez and Emerson Hancock. The Ms could challenge for the division title in 2022 if they get improvement from their youngsters, but they will be the Astros biggest challenge in 2023 and beyond.
Rangers
The Rangers made the biggest splash in free agency, and they are still projected to finish at the bottom of the division. The reason is simple. They still lack good players. On offense, the three free agents they signed are projected to contribute 10.0 fWAR. The 14 other players projected by Depth Charts are projected to contribute only 14.3 fWAR.
It’s a similar story on the mound. Jon Gray is projected for 2.1 fWAR, and the rest of the pitchers are projected for 5.8 fWAR. The Rangers rebuild started in 2017 when they dealt Yu Darvish for Willie Calhoun. Calhoun is emblematic of the Rangers from 2018-2020, as he has never developed from prospect into a worthwhile major league contributor. The Rangers do have a farm system noted primarily for being very deep, and they will need some of those players to develop into solid major leaguers to compliment their new middle infield combination.
But will it happen soon enough. Semien turned 31 in September, and will make $25 million a season until he is 38. Seager is 28, so he is in his prime now. But if he regresses early, the Rangers will regret those contract. I’ll reserve judgment on these two deals until we see if the Rangers prospects turn into assets that compliment Seager and Semien in a rise up the standings in future years.
Astros
The Astros entered the off-season in an enviable position, having a deep roster with relatively few holes to fill. The Justin Verlander re-signing was a luxury purchase. The Astros did not need a starter—they have 6 others—but could use someone to pitch Game 1 of a playoff series. The depth of their pitching staff and roster allows them to give Verlander any rest he needs after his own Tommy John surgery.
The Neris signing addresses a hole in the bullpen and they could sign another free agent for the arm barn. But the question that remains after the lockout is what they will do at shortstop. I do not think they are going long-term with Correa, so they could look for a short term solution who keeps the position warm waiting to Jeremy Pena to take over at shortstop. The situation at shortstop is not encouraging, but that is one of the few places on the roster where that is the case.
Conclusion
The AL West tightened as a result of the November free agent frenzy in the division. But most of the tightening happened because the teams at the bottom made moves to push themselves closer to .500 this season and to set themselves up for a run when their prospects are ready.
The Astros remain the favorites for the 2022 title after this set of moves. But future years seem to be up in the air in the division.