4 Key Factors on Why the Astros Won the Series in Seattle
The hitters slugged homers. The pitching starred in the two wins. The Astros RISP luck shifted, mostly. Dusty managed like it was the playoffs.
The Astros began a pair of three game series in which they need to win 2 of 3 to advance to the playoffs where they will (almost certainly) need to win 2 of 3 games in a Wild Card series.
The Astros put themselves in this position be losing 2 of 3 games in their last 4 series. Fortunately for the Astros, their losing skid coincided with one by the Mariners, keeping them in playoff position.
And finally, the Astros won a series, taking 2 of 3 from the Mariners in Seattle. It was not only welcome from the Nuke LaLoosh “winning is better than losing” perspective. It puts the Astros on the precipice of taking the final spot in the American League playoffs.
But for the Astros, the playoffs have essentially begun. The team needs to win most, if not all of their games, in this the final week of the season. If they do that, their reward is that they get to play more baseball. Losses are not fatal, but are extremely painful and harmful to the team’s chances of advancing.
But winning, well winning puts you on the path of moving forward. Which is what the team did in Seattle.
Here were four factors that were very important in the Astros series win in Seattle
Ball Go Far, Team Go Far
There is a sense among baseball fans, especially those of a more traditional bent, that they key to winning in the playoffs is for a team to make contact, move the runners, have productive outs and scratch out runs. Nonsense.
The way to win, especially against the better pitching a team faces in the postseason, is to slug your way to victory. Joe Sheehan coined an aphorism to explain this: “Ball Go Far; Team Go Far.”
The Astros followed this formula in Seattle, outhomering the Mariners 5 to 2. And the gaps is even larger when it comes to runs produced on home runs. 6 of the 7 home runs in the series were solo home runs, including the leadoff shot by J.P. Crawford on Wednesday.
The big blow that flipped the series to the Astros favor was the three run homer by Mauricio Dubon in the fourth inning on Wednesday. It gave the Astros a cushion they never relinquished last night.
Dingers are good. Hit dingers.
Verlander on Monday, the Bullpen on Wednesday
The Astros acquired Justin Verlander at the trade deadline to help address the woes in their starting rotation and he’s been fine. Verlander has declined from his Cy Young form in 2019 and 2022, and has pitched at the level of a #2 or #3 starter since returning to the Astros.
But on Monday night, he pitched like an ace. He allowed only 4 baserunners (3 hits, 1 walk) in 8 strong innings on the bump, striking out 8 and inducing 10 whiffs from Mariners batters.
Baseball writers felt compelled to use the same adjective to describe Verlander’s performance: vintage.
Indeed it was, and right when the team needed it.
In the Wednesday victory, the pitching star wasn’t the starter—Framber Valdez walked too many and was finally burned in the fourth inning when Eugenio Suarez drove in two with a bases loaded single.
The star was instead the bullpen, which shut out the Mariners over the last 5 innings of the game. Dusty Baker turned to the 4 bullpen arms he trusts in high leverage situations—Kendall Graveman, Hector Neris, Bryan Abreu, and Ryan Pressly. Those 4 were generous in allowing Mariners baserunners—they allowed three hits and four walks. But they were stingy in allowing them to go anywhere, thanks in part to getting 9 of their 15 outs via strikeout.
For as wobby as the Astros starting rotation has been over the second half of the season, the bullpen—especially its top arms—have remained a key strength on this team, and one they will have lean on going to the final series of the season and any playoff games after that.
Runners in Scoring Position and Good Fortune
The Astros losing skid was caused by many factors, but a sudden cold stretch with runners in scoring position was one of the key reasons. This is frustrating, but in small sample sizes, can happen.
The good news is the Astros returned to average in Seattle, going 8 for 29 with runners in scoring position across the three games. That’s a .275 average.
And it outpaced the Mariners, who went 4 for 21 (a .190 batting average).
Of course, luck still matters here. The Astros went 2 for 13 in the Tuesday loss. The Astros lost that game by 4 runs, yet between the RISP misfortune and the bad defense (3 errors), it seemed much closer.
But regardless of how fortune turns when it comes to runners in scoring position, one thing that matters is opportunities. The Mariners had 8 fewer opportunities with runners in scoring position than did the Astros, further evidence of the good pitching from Verlander on Monday and the bullpen on Wednesday.
Dusty Managed Like It Was the Playoffs
Dusty Baker managed the series in Seattle in a more aggressive fashion, similar to how one manages in the playoffs. This was most evident in the game Wednesday, when Baker pulled Framber Valdez after only 4 innings and 83 pitches.
Valdez was wobbly and going to the bullpen certainly seemed like the superior move, but Dusty’s track record this season has been to keep this starters into right about 100 pitches, regardless of how they are performing or whether they are suffering from the third times through the order penalty.
But Dusty made the right move pulling Valdez, surprising me.
Dusty was further aggressive in how he used his bullpen last night, throwing only his 4 most trusted relievers. To do this, he pushed Bryan Abreu to 44 pitches and 8 batters. Ryan Pressly was called upon in the 8th to get four outs, including facing the Mariners best hitter in Julio Rodriguez.
In short, Dusty managed last night like it was a playoff game.
But we also saw Dusty manage like a playoff game on Monday night. Dusty sent out Justin Verlander for the 7th, 8th, and 9th innings. Verlander was cruising, so the choice made sense, and Verlander retired 16 batters in a row between the 3rd and the 8th innings.
But the choice also seemed to reflect a preference to rest the bullpen while the starter was able to handle his business. That choice paid off on Monday, as Verlander was only removed after he allowed a leadoff double in the 9th, but also on Wednesday.
It is unclear to me whether Baker has engaged in playoff mode with the lineup. Michael Brantley played Wednesday after 10 days off and was excellent—4 singles in 5 at bats. Could Dusty have pushed him into the lineup sooner? It’s hard to say with Brantley’s balky shoulder.
Dusty also played Mauricio Dubon over Chas McCormick on Wednesday. McCormick had been removed from Tuesday’s game with a
Finish the Job
The Astros now have a magic number of 2 to reach the playoffs. They have three games remaining this season—all against the Diamondbacks starting Friday in Phoenix.
A magic number of 2 means that the Astros can get into the playoffs with 2 wins. They are win-and-you’re-in.1
The Astros can also get into the playoffs with fewer than 2 wins if the Mariners lose games to the Rangers.
The Diamondbacks are also in the hunt for their own playoff berth and currently stand 2 games ahead of the Cubs and Marlins, who are tied for the final National League Wild Card spot.
A D-Backs win this afternoon against the White Sox combined with a Marlins loss this evening to the Mets would clinch a playoff spot for Arizona.2 That would shift Arizona’s focus this weekend away from winning at all costs and toward preparation for the playoffs. It’s a small advantage for the Astros, but one that is worth rooting for today.
I hate the term “control your own destiny.” By definition, destiny cannot be controlled.
The Diamondbacks hold the tiebreaker over the Cubs, so they only need 1 win (or Cubs loss) to guarantee they finish ahead of Chicago.