A Quiet Offseason in the AL West?
Payroll limitations for the top three teams in the division should make for a relatively uneventful offseason. Since the other contenders have clear weaknesses, this is good news for the Astros.
The good news for the 2024 Astros is that they played in the American League West. The Astros won 88 games, their fewest in a full season since 2016. That was 4 games fewer than any other division winner in the majors this season. It was actually one fewer than the Arizona Diamondbacks, who missed the playoffs in the National League.
The rest of the division did not put up much of a fight, as only one other team was above .500, and the Mariners were dispatched with a week left in the season.
Once again, let’s say thank goodness for the 2024 AL West.
Here at the Breathin’ Orange Fire substack, I always keep a close eye on the AL West. As 2024 proved, the easiest way to get to the playoffs is to win the division, especially when it features a whole bunch of teams that aren’t very good.
Overall, there is not a ton to fear from the division in 2025. Two teams are not very good and don’t have much prospect to get better. One team seems unable to collect enough offensive talent to improve enough. One team seems capable of significant improvement. Overall, none seem like they will be among the best teams in baseball, which is encouraging since the Astros are unlikely to be among the best teams in baseball assuming they regress significantly in production at third base.
Further, there is little reason to think that any team in the AL West will make a meaningful splash in the offseason that could reset the division race for 2025. All three teams at the top of the division seem to have payroll limitations that will restrict the ability of their front offices to make a big addition next season.
I’ll examine each AL West team in alphabetical order.
Angels
The Angels had their worst season ever in 2024. The Angels were 63-99 last season, and they have never lost more than 95 games in a season before—that’s actually quite impressive when you think about it.
The Angels lost so much in 2024 because they do not have a lot of good players and the best player they have—Mike Trout—didn’t play much due to injury.
The Angels appear trapped between an owner who meddles too much in the baseball decision making and an inability to develop high quality regulars or to improve players who get to Anaheim. It’s hard to think they will come close to contention in 2025.
The Athletics
The A’s had the type of season a team can build on in 2024, as they developed young players such as Lawrence Butler and Shea Langeliers into quality regulars. Brent Rooker was one of the best hitters in baseball, and young pitchers like Mitch Spence, Joey Estes, and Osvaldo Bido showed promise. One wouldn’t expect such a team to contend in 2025, but with development and some savvy additions; well, we’ve seen teams like that surprise many times.
Of course, the issue for the A’s is that they are moving to Sacramento in 2025 to play at the ballpark of the AAA team there while the team waits to move to Las Vegas—or even break ground on the stadium there.
This has always seemed like a terrible idea from a business standpoint, but also is a terrible idea from a baseball standpoint. It is hard to think that such a minor league atmosphere would attract free agents, should the Athletics want to sign them, or to be an environment conducive to the development of young players. Everyone knows the franchise is looking past the 2025 season.
Mariners
In 2022, the Mariners made the playoffs for the first time in 21 years and appeared poised to develop into a true rival to the Astros for supremacy in the AL West. This has not happened.
The Mariners have, in fact, gone backwards. After winning 90 games in 2022, they won only 88 in 2023 and 85 this season, missing the playoffs both times. The Mariners have excellent building blocks—four excellent homegrown and cost-controlled starting pitchers in Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo to go with ace Luis Castillo and some excellent young players in Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh, both of whom recorded more than 4 bWAR in 2024.
The issue is the rest of the offense, which collectively slashed .218/.287/.364 for an OPS of .650. Yikes! Another issue is ownership, which has consistently prioritized their profits and kept the team’s payroll at Central Division levels—they had the 17th highest payroll in the majors this year.
This sets up the central conflict for the Mariners this offseason. They need to add better players and to do that, a team usually has to take on more salary.
The bad news for the Astros is that the Mariners do intend to increase their payroll next year. But the good news is that they only intend to increase their payroll on the margins. “The Mariners do not intend to dive into the deep end of the free-agent pool this winter,” according to reporting from Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of the Seattle Times.
The Mariners are one of the teams that would get the biggest boost from signing a big power hitter like Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, or (gulp) Alex Bregman. But they won’t do it, keeping their payroll below historical norms.
The Ms will have to get a good bit of internal improvement to push into the mid-90s in wins next season. I’m skeptical that will happen.
Rangers
Speaking of internal improvement, the Rangers did not get much of it in 2024, but I think it is quite possible they will get a good bit of it in 2025.
The case that the Rangers would dominate the AL West in 2024 was that their young players would grow into big contributors. That did not happen. Josh Jung was injured most of the season and only got 188 plate appearances. Evan Carter was also injured (162 plate appearances) and bad when he played (.633 OPS). Wyatt Langford was healthy, but did not play like a star, despite being a top prospect.
The other issue for the Rangers is that they got down seasons from key contributors like Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, Jonah Heim, and Leody Tavares.
There are lots of reasons to think that the Rangers will get improvements—especially on offense—from each of those spots next season. Not necessarily from the same players—one could see them trading Tavares or Garcia—but from other players. Regressing to the mean and getting better health could produce 10 more runs in projections for the Rangers.
The big question for the Rangers in 2025 seems to be their rotation. Among the 8 pitchers who had the most starts for the Rangers in 2024, 4 are free agents and 1 has already been traded.1
The team returns Jon Gray, Dane Dunning, and Cody Bradford to the rotation. With that being said, the Rangers may not make big additions to their rotation. They have both Jacob de Grom and Tyler Mahle under contract for next season. Both have pitched well in their careers, but have not pitched much recently due to Tommy John Surgery. Both were healthy enough to make 3 starts at the end of the 2024 season, which gives the Rangers hope they will be healthy enough to be rotation mainstays in 2025. Much like the Astros, the Rangers will have to make a good evaluation of the medical condition of their pitchers.
Other rotation options for the Rangers include two young prospects—Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker. Both were high first round picks out of Vanderbilt. Both have fraught minor league track records—Leiter due to underperformance and Rocker due to injuries. Heck, both have excellent athletes for fathers. And both debuted in 2024 to some fanfare and are big questions for 2025.
The key question for the Rangers front office this offseason is whether they trust this rotation to hold together in 2025. If so, they can try to address their offense, especially in the outfield.
Or they can just rely on internal improvements from Jung, Carter, Langford, Semien, and Heim. They may need to. Their payroll will take a step back as Evan Grant reports that “one of owner Ray Davis’ top priorities this winter — perhaps even his No. 1 priority — is to duck under the $241MM luxury threshold in order to reset the team’s penalty level.
The AL West Picture for 2025
The AL West is likely to be a 3-team race entering the 2025 season. There are good reasons to think the Rangers will be improved next season, and some reasons to think the Mariners might win a few more games.
The Astros are likely to lose Alex Bregman, which will certainly hurt the team. But the Astros continue to have a strong core of star level players for 2025 in Yordan Alvarez, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, Yainer Diaz, Framber Valdez, and Hunter Brown. It is a team with some clear weaknesses and a lack of payroll flexibility.
But there is no reason to think that the Astros weaknesses are greater than the Mariners lack of offensive punch or the wobbly rotation options for the Rangers. The Astros will again be contenders, if they can play well enough in 2025.
The other conclusion I reach from this study of the AL West entering the offseason is that I do not expect a lot of moves from these teams over the offseason. The top three contenders all have payroll limitations—the Rangers and Astros seem to be at the top of what any owner would spend, and the Mariners are at the top of what their owner would spend.
Each may be more fruitful in the trade market, unless the Rangers decide they have to get a reliable starting pitcher for 2025.
Expect a relatively quite offseason in the AL West, and a three-way battle for the division in 2025.
Three Rangers starters—Andrew Heaney, Max Scherzer, and Jose Urena—are at the end of their contracts. Nathan Eovaldi has a player option for 2025 and is expected to decline it. Michael Lorenzen was traded to the Royals at the trade deadline.